Our Pets Heads are Falling Off!

At some point you learn from your mistakes.  No, not the Terps, but your humble author.  After years of jumping to call things a low point, you learn to just stop doing that for fear of what will come next.  Yesterday's lost to Boston U wasn't the first time that Maryland has lost to a team from the lowly Patriot League in Comcast Center, just the most recent.  The Terps led for just 4:00 total yesterday.  For those without the benefit of a calculator, that's just 10% of the game.  The Terps basically let a team from a low-major league come into our gym and do whatever they want.

The Terriers aren't awful, of course.  There's probably little different between them and Oregon State, other than name and that no one on BU was likely recruited to play at an ACC level.  Anyone who thought Maryland would win handily yesterday either doesn't pay attention to Maryland or doesn't pay attention to the sport in general.  BU had already given George Washington and Harvard - two teams better than Maryland - trouble and were picked to win their league.  It's a team likely to play in March, whether in the NCAA or the NIT.

In the postgame, the esteemed Coach Turgeon said the following:

We can’t score 77 at home and lose, so maybe it’s on the defensive end

77 points probably ought to be enough to win in most cases, but the game was 76 possessions.  I don't want to make too much about whether Turgeon understands tempo-free statistics, and I'm sure it's not lost on him that 57% FT shooting and a dozen and a half turnovers are bad looks, but make no mistake that the offense's inability to convert were just as damaging as giving up all those open 3s to BU.

The Terps are left with the very real possibility that they won't finish above .500 overall for the first time in over 20 years.  Even if they win their next two games (no guarantee), they'll need to get to 8-10 in the conference just to get to 16-15 for the season.  While the Seth Allen injury has hurt, that's a very bleak outlook for a program in Year 3 of a rebuild.

Suck It Lunardi

Here's the bracket.  It's happening.  Terps in.  Let's goooooooooooo.

I'll bet I do better than Lunardi.


SOUTH
--
Louisville vs Western Kentucky/NC A&T
Oklahoma vs Cal
Florida vs Akron
Saint Louis vs Bucknell
Michigan State vs Florida-Gulf Coast
Oregon vs Wichita State
Pitt vs Maryland/Middle Tennessee
Kansas vs Harvard

WEST
--
Gonzaga vs Long Island/Liberty
Cincinnati vs Illinois
North Carolina vs Boise State
Kansas State vs New Mexico State
Michigan vs Northwestern State
UNLV vs Iowa State
Memphis vs Colorado
Georgetown vs Pacific

EAST
--
Miami vs James Madison
Creighton vs Missouri
Arizona vs Villanova/Saint Mary's
Wisconsin vs Valparaiso
New Mexico vs Montana
Notre Dame vs Belmont
Butler vs Ole Miss
Ohio State vs Iona

MIDWEST
--
Indiana vs Southern
North Carolina State vs Colorado State
Oklahoma State vs Temple
Marquette vs Davidson
Syracuse vs South Dakota State
VCU vs San Diego State
UCLA vs Minnesota
Duke vs Albany

And then this happened...

Click pic for full image.

So this happened...

My art direction is slacking, so I'll repost instead. New art forthcoming, now that I remembered my password.

#BEATDUKE

Oh yeah, we did that shit.  More to come.

In the meantime, enjoy the shot chart from the Virginia game!

Howard: 2-4 (1-2, 0-1, 0-0, 1-1)
Faust: 4-9 (3-3, 1-1, 0-4, 0-1)
Wells:  5-9 (3-3, 0-1, 0-0, 2-5)
Padgett: 1-2 (1-2, 0-0, 0-0, 0-0)
Len: 3-6 (3-3, 0-2, 0-1, 0-0)
Allen: 4-8 (3-5, 1-1, 0-0, 0-2)
Aronhalt: 3-7 (1-1, 0-0, 0-2, 2-4)
Layman: 1-7 (0-1, 0-0, 1-2, 0-4)
Mitchell: 1-3 (1-3, 0-0, 0-0, 0-0)
Cleare: 3-3 (3-3, 0-0, 0-0, 0-0)

But Then I Saw This

Ed. Note: But Then I Saw This is a recurring series where stats, preferably of the tempo free variety, are used to crush the very fundamentals beliefs of the author.  This is entry the first.

The always great Luke Winn posted this handy chart in his weekly power rankings:

All year, or at least for the past month plus after it became clear that Maryland wasn't All That Good, the talking point around the internet water cooler was about the lack of a point guard and an inability to feed the Big Blue and Gold Alex Len and his counterparts in the post.  And make no mistake, I believed that was absolutely true.  Still do, to an extent, but this chart sort of puts to rest the notion that there's a ton more post feeding to do that's been left on the table.

Now you can make the case that Maryland really should be higher because Alex Len is that much of a specimen, and it doesn't ring completely hollow, but Len is a big guy without a whole mess of post moves so it's tough to swallow.  Bottom line, Maryland does feed the post.

There's also the matter of Maryland being 8th on this list in efficiency behind conference-mate Georgia Tech in both not only efficiency but number.  Now we should remember that this is all post touches, so Slim Charles and Padgett and Shaq all figure prominently as well as the guards, but it's still an ugly number.

So yeah, back to the whole, "We have a team of ten guys who turn the ball over an inordinate amount of times" to explain everything broken about our offense.

Evaluating the rest of the 2012-13 Season

In an ugly loss today to the Wahoos, the Terps simply didn't show up and got outrebounded for the first time all season. At 17-7 (5-6), it's time to re-assess the Terps. Simply put, this team is NOT what most fans (including myself) thought it was. On paper, they seem to have the talent to compete with any team in the country. But they would get absolutely run out of the gym by the likes of Michigan, Indiana, etc (yay going to the B1G!). This post will attempt to re-evaluate the Terps and look at realistic expectations for the remaining 7 games of the season.

Let's try to see things for what they are, not what we hope them to be.

What we know:

1. The only consistency the Terps have shown this year is the ability to be inconsistent. Through 11 conference games, the Terps have yet to turn in consecutive inspiring performances. What's worse, individually, the Terps are so up and down from game to game. Layman goes off at VT, then is ice cold against UVA today. Len has stretches in every game (sometimes the entire game), when he is completely invisible. Charles shows some amazing post moves, then commits silly fouls that keep him on the bench.

What we can count on so far this season are 13-18 TO each game, a different high scorer each game, and several plays every game that leave Terps fans scratching their heads wondering how the team makes the same mistakes they made in November.

2. The Terps are NOT an NCAA Tournament team this year. It's time everyone came to realize this. Whether fans blame it on their lack of experience, Mark Turgeon, or any specific other factors, it doesn't matter. All signs point to the same conclusion: Maryland will not be dancing in March, barring a string of 4-straight wins starting Thursday, Mar 14 in Greensboro.

3. The Terps lack solid leadership. On the floor, the team's lone senior coming into this year was James Padgett. With all due respect to him, he is quiet, reserved, and not the kind of player to rally the team in a pivotal moment. Enter Dez Wells. He has without a doubt stepped up as the leader of the team.  But despite his best efforts (2nd on team in PPG, 3rd in RPG, 2nd in APG), he also leads the team in TO per game with 3.0 (no other player on the team has more than 1.9). From the bench, Turgeon's lineup changes have come under fire some this season as well. Despite the obvious questions (Where was the Terps' best offensive weapon at VT, Jake Layman, during the last 8 minutes on Thursday?How does Mitchell, the team's 2nd leading rebounder at 6.2 RPG, only get 9 minutes in the game today against UVA?), the bigger questions in my mind are about improvement. Although the Terps are a very young team, how can they still be struggling with unforced turnovers, an abysmal offense, and a lack of motivation at times? These are seemingly correctable errors which are still showing up on the court 3 months later. Additionally, in terms of motivation, how do you not get your team up to play in a virtual must-win game against UVA? The Terps came out flat, sluggish, and got outhustled on their own home floor today. Good teams (read: NCAA Tournament teams) simply do NOT get outplayed that badly at home.

4. Alex Len will not be a serious contributor to an NBA team next year. That isn't to say he won't be a lottery pick based on his amazing potential. However, watching Alex struggle to assert himself against physical, but smaller, ACC forwards is mind boggling. Is this partially on the coaching staff for not calling plays to get him open? Maybe. But oftentimes, there seems to be a lack of effort and a lack of execution on Len's part as well. In any event, there's no doubt he would greatly benefit from another season in College Park, and no doubt the Terps would greatly benefit from having Len on campus for another year.



What we don't know:

1. Can Mark Turgeon improve Maryland into more than a middle-of-the-pack team? The Terps haven't been relevant in the ACC since Mr. Vasquez was walking around as BMOC. Although some question Turgeon's recruiting, I firmly believe Seth, Jake, Shaq, and Chuck are very solid with each showing high potential to improve over their years in College Park. Landing Dez Wells, Evan Smotrycz, and Logan Aronhalt was huge for Turgeon's staff as well, and hopefully Maryland can continue to keep an eye out for solid transfer players, something we didn't see during the last few years of the Gary Williams era. Although he missed out on the Harrisons, Roddy Peters is Turgeon's highest-ranked recruit ever.

But recruiting is only half the battle. On the court, can Turgeon get the most out of his players? This year's squad certainly looked talented enough to be an ACC contender this year, but inconsistency and TO's have plagued them all season (see above). Over the past two ACC seasons, I've only seen one "good win" (this year vs (14) NCST) and only one "bad loss" (last year @GT). Other than those two games, the Terps have generally beaten the teams they should've beaten (VT, Wake, Clemson, BC, etc) and lost to the teams who should've beaten them (Duke, UNC, etc). This places them very much in the middle of the pack. Terps fans aren't (and shouldn't be) satisfied with mediocrity. I'm not, by any means, insinuating that Turgeon is satisfied with mediocrity, but the million-dollar question is whether or not he can take the steps required to push Maryland back into contender status.

2. Can Roddy Peters be the PG the Terps desperately need? Despite my fellow blogger's hatred for Marshall, he keyed the Tar Heels' success in 2011 and 2012 after Ole Roy inserted him into the starting lineup in place of Larry Drew II. The Heels had plenty of weapons (including the same fellow blogger's favorite), but had no one to get them the ball and play consistent PG. Marshall made the difference as a pass-first facilitator.

The Terps will face a very similar situation next year. With many combo guards but no clear PG on this roster, can Roddy Peters put the ball where it needs to be? And will his shoulder heal in time to get him a solid off-season of practice and preparation?


Only time will tell. As always, go Terps! See you at Comcast on Saturday.