Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Luck, #340 Maryland, -0.131

So it goes that despite being number 1 in the country in defensive efficiency, Maryland is just 11-6 with a one point win over College of Charleston being by far the best accomplishment of the not-so-young season. Either that or a 23 point rout of Penn State on the road. I'm really not sure which of those is more depressing to have as a signature win.

To be sure, luck only accounts for some of the team's struggles. It's going to be hard to convince anyone that missing free throw after free throw has anything to do with luck, and aside from that, the team's five backcourt regulars all seemingly range from average (on a good day) to downright bad as long distance shooters. Eric Hayes, they are not.

The latest loss was the toughest, and there doesn't need to be much said about it at this point other than that the Terps blew a 12 point lead on the road because they allowed a staggering 19-0 run. After playing so well for the first 30 minutes - hitting jumpers, getting the ball to Jordan Williams, playing outstanding man to man and pressure defense - the team absolutely crumbled in the final minutes, not for the first time in recent years. It wasn't quite the collapse that we saw against Clemson in 2008, but it wasn't that far off either.

The team's outlook is grim, but with a an All-American in the middle and a suffocating defense most nights combined with a soft league schedule and three extra tournament berths available, the team should still expect to be in the position to have its name called by Greg Gumbel on Selection Sunday.

Perhaps my optimism is misplaced. After all, Midseason Wooden Award Candidate Jordan Fucking Williams is only one man, even if he is an 18-12 kind of man. Up next for the Terps leading into the rematch with Duke (and their only other chance this season for a marquee win) will be home games against Virginia Tech and Clemson followed next week by road dates with Georgia Tech and Virginia. The Terps, even despite their struggles, ought to be favored in each game. If they could manage to hold serve, it would give them quite a bit of breathing room and potential to make noise in the ACC race, one which Duke still controls but not nearly as handily as if Kyrie Irving were still healthy.

The most interesting thing in the past month has been the what is happening in the frontcourt. Dino Gregory has stepped up huge this season. Given his increased propensity to knock down the open mid-range jumper he might be called a poor man's Landon Milbourne. Never having had a ton of love for Landon's game, I'd disagree and go as far as saying that he's about as good as Milbourne. Not as reliable on the offensive end, perhaps, but probably much better on the defensive side. Dino blocks shots, takes charges, and generally doesn't allow many big games for the guy he is assigned to guard.

The backup spot is increasingly going to Hawk Palsson. In the first three conference games plus the Nova game, the Hawk has logged 47 minutes compared to just 19 for Inspector Padgett (who got his first DNP of the season on Saturday). The Flying Dutchman Berend Weijs also didn't see minutes against Villanova and played just five combined in three conference games. As big as the rotation seemed a few weeks back, it looks like Gary is paring it back to his traditional eight man core plus optional ninth man (in this case Padgett).

Of course the game tonight against Virginia Tech is huge. A loss, at home, against a team thought to be about as good as Maryland means it's almost officially time to think about the NIT. Given that the ACC will probably get three or four at-large/non-Duke bids, it's imperative to win games like the next two at home against fellow contenders VT and Clemson. Plus who wouldn't love to see us beat that loud mouthed, whiny POS Seth Greenberg again after losing to him all too often when the Hokies first joined the league. Plus it would also be nice to send out one of Bmore's finest, Malcolm Delaney, with a loss in his last game at the Comcast Center. Hopefully we can make them pay for talking shit about our fans leading up to the game.