Friday, February 22, 2013
Monday, February 18, 2013
Sunday, February 17, 2013
#BEATDUKE
Oh yeah, we did that shit. More to come.
In the meantime, enjoy the shot chart from the Virginia game!
Howard: 2-4 (1-2, 0-1, 0-0, 1-1)
Faust: 4-9 (3-3, 1-1, 0-4, 0-1)
Wells: 5-9 (3-3, 0-1, 0-0, 2-5)
Padgett: 1-2 (1-2, 0-0, 0-0, 0-0)
Len: 3-6 (3-3, 0-2, 0-1, 0-0)
Allen: 4-8 (3-5, 1-1, 0-0, 0-2)
Aronhalt: 3-7 (1-1, 0-0, 0-2, 2-4)
Layman: 1-7 (0-1, 0-0, 1-2, 0-4)
Mitchell: 1-3 (1-3, 0-0, 0-0, 0-0)
Cleare: 3-3 (3-3, 0-0, 0-0, 0-0)
In the meantime, enjoy the shot chart from the Virginia game!
Howard: 2-4 (1-2, 0-1, 0-0, 1-1)
Faust: 4-9 (3-3, 1-1, 0-4, 0-1)
Wells: 5-9 (3-3, 0-1, 0-0, 2-5)
Padgett: 1-2 (1-2, 0-0, 0-0, 0-0)
Len: 3-6 (3-3, 0-2, 0-1, 0-0)
Allen: 4-8 (3-5, 1-1, 0-0, 0-2)
Aronhalt: 3-7 (1-1, 0-0, 0-2, 2-4)
Layman: 1-7 (0-1, 0-0, 1-2, 0-4)
Mitchell: 1-3 (1-3, 0-0, 0-0, 0-0)
Cleare: 3-3 (3-3, 0-0, 0-0, 0-0)
Thursday, February 14, 2013
But Then I Saw This
Ed. Note: But Then I Saw This is a recurring series where stats, preferably of the tempo free variety, are used to crush the very fundamentals beliefs of the author. This is entry the first.
The always great Luke Winn posted this handy chart in his weekly power rankings:
All year, or at least for the past month plus after it became clear that Maryland wasn't All That Good, the talking point around the internet water cooler was about the lack of a point guard and an inability to feed the Big Blue and Gold Alex Len and his counterparts in the post. And make no mistake, I believed that was absolutely true. Still do, to an extent, but this chart sort of puts to rest the notion that there's a ton more post feeding to do that's been left on the table.
Now you can make the case that Maryland really should be higher because Alex Len is that much of a specimen, and it doesn't ring completely hollow, but Len is a big guy without a whole mess of post moves so it's tough to swallow. Bottom line, Maryland does feed the post.
There's also the matter of Maryland being 8th on this list in efficiency behind conference-mate Georgia Tech in both not only efficiency but number. Now we should remember that this is all post touches, so Slim Charles and Padgett and Shaq all figure prominently as well as the guards, but it's still an ugly number.
So yeah, back to the whole, "We have a team of ten guys who turn the ball over an inordinate amount of times" to explain everything broken about our offense.
The always great Luke Winn posted this handy chart in his weekly power rankings:
All year, or at least for the past month plus after it became clear that Maryland wasn't All That Good, the talking point around the internet water cooler was about the lack of a point guard and an inability to feed the Big Blue and Gold Alex Len and his counterparts in the post. And make no mistake, I believed that was absolutely true. Still do, to an extent, but this chart sort of puts to rest the notion that there's a ton more post feeding to do that's been left on the table.
Now you can make the case that Maryland really should be higher because Alex Len is that much of a specimen, and it doesn't ring completely hollow, but Len is a big guy without a whole mess of post moves so it's tough to swallow. Bottom line, Maryland does feed the post.
There's also the matter of Maryland being 8th on this list in efficiency behind conference-mate Georgia Tech in both not only efficiency but number. Now we should remember that this is all post touches, so Slim Charles and Padgett and Shaq all figure prominently as well as the guards, but it's still an ugly number.
So yeah, back to the whole, "We have a team of ten guys who turn the ball over an inordinate amount of times" to explain everything broken about our offense.
Sunday, February 10, 2013
Evaluating the rest of the 2012-13 Season
In an ugly loss today to the Wahoos, the Terps simply didn't show up and got outrebounded for the first time all season. At 17-7 (5-6), it's time to re-assess the Terps. Simply put, this team is NOT what most fans (including myself) thought it was. On paper, they seem to have the talent to compete with any team in the country. But they would get absolutely run out of the gym by the likes of Michigan, Indiana, etc (yay going to the B1G!). This post will attempt to re-evaluate the Terps and look at realistic expectations for the remaining 7 games of the season.
Let's try to see things for what they are, not what we hope them to be.
What we know:
1. The only consistency the Terps have shown this year is the ability to be inconsistent. Through 11 conference games, the Terps have yet to turn in consecutive inspiring performances. What's worse, individually, the Terps are so up and down from game to game. Layman goes off at VT, then is ice cold against UVA today. Len has stretches in every game (sometimes the entire game), when he is completely invisible. Charles shows some amazing post moves, then commits silly fouls that keep him on the bench.
What we can count on so far this season are 13-18 TO each game, a different high scorer each game, and several plays every game that leave Terps fans scratching their heads wondering how the team makes the same mistakes they made in November.
2. The Terps are NOT an NCAA Tournament team this year. It's time everyone came to realize this. Whether fans blame it on their lack of experience, Mark Turgeon, or any specific other factors, it doesn't matter. All signs point to the same conclusion: Maryland will not be dancing in March, barring a string of 4-straight wins starting Thursday, Mar 14 in Greensboro.
3. The Terps lack solid leadership. On the floor, the team's lone senior coming into this year was James Padgett. With all due respect to him, he is quiet, reserved, and not the kind of player to rally the team in a pivotal moment. Enter Dez Wells. He has without a doubt stepped up as the leader of the team. But despite his best efforts (2nd on team in PPG, 3rd in RPG, 2nd in APG), he also leads the team in TO per game with 3.0 (no other player on the team has more than 1.9). From the bench, Turgeon's lineup changes have come under fire some this season as well. Despite the obvious questions (Where was the Terps' best offensive weapon at VT, Jake Layman, during the last 8 minutes on Thursday?How does Mitchell, the team's 2nd leading rebounder at 6.2 RPG, only get 9 minutes in the game today against UVA?), the bigger questions in my mind are about improvement. Although the Terps are a very young team, how can they still be struggling with unforced turnovers, an abysmal offense, and a lack of motivation at times? These are seemingly correctable errors which are still showing up on the court 3 months later. Additionally, in terms of motivation, how do you not get your team up to play in a virtual must-win game against UVA? The Terps came out flat, sluggish, and got outhustled on their own home floor today. Good teams (read: NCAA Tournament teams) simply do NOT get outplayed that badly at home.
4. Alex Len will not be a serious contributor to an NBA team next year. That isn't to say he won't be a lottery pick based on his amazing potential. However, watching Alex struggle to assert himself against physical, but smaller, ACC forwards is mind boggling. Is this partially on the coaching staff for not calling plays to get him open? Maybe. But oftentimes, there seems to be a lack of effort and a lack of execution on Len's part as well. In any event, there's no doubt he would greatly benefit from another season in College Park, and no doubt the Terps would greatly benefit from having Len on campus for another year.
What we don't know:
1. Can Mark Turgeon improve Maryland into more than a middle-of-the-pack team? The Terps haven't been relevant in the ACC since Mr. Vasquez was walking around as BMOC. Although some question Turgeon's recruiting, I firmly believe Seth, Jake, Shaq, and Chuck are very solid with each showing high potential to improve over their years in College Park. Landing Dez Wells, Evan Smotrycz, and Logan Aronhalt was huge for Turgeon's staff as well, and hopefully Maryland can continue to keep an eye out for solid transfer players, something we didn't see during the last few years of the Gary Williams era. Although he missed out on the Harrisons, Roddy Peters is Turgeon's highest-ranked recruit ever.
But recruiting is only half the battle. On the court, can Turgeon get the most out of his players? This year's squad certainly looked talented enough to be an ACC contender this year, but inconsistency and TO's have plagued them all season (see above). Over the past two ACC seasons, I've only seen one "good win" (this year vs (14) NCST) and only one "bad loss" (last year @GT). Other than those two games, the Terps have generally beaten the teams they should've beaten (VT, Wake, Clemson, BC, etc) and lost to the teams who should've beaten them (Duke, UNC, etc). This places them very much in the middle of the pack. Terps fans aren't (and shouldn't be) satisfied with mediocrity. I'm not, by any means, insinuating that Turgeon is satisfied with mediocrity, but the million-dollar question is whether or not he can take the steps required to push Maryland back into contender status.
2. Can Roddy Peters be the PG the Terps desperately need? Despite my fellow blogger's hatred for Marshall, he keyed the Tar Heels' success in 2011 and 2012 after Ole Roy inserted him into the starting lineup in place of Larry Drew II. The Heels had plenty of weapons (including the same fellow blogger's favorite), but had no one to get them the ball and play consistent PG. Marshall made the difference as a pass-first facilitator.
The Terps will face a very similar situation next year. With many combo guards but no clear PG on this roster, can Roddy Peters put the ball where it needs to be? And will his shoulder heal in time to get him a solid off-season of practice and preparation?
Only time will tell. As always, go Terps! See you at Comcast on Saturday.
Let's try to see things for what they are, not what we hope them to be.
What we know:
1. The only consistency the Terps have shown this year is the ability to be inconsistent. Through 11 conference games, the Terps have yet to turn in consecutive inspiring performances. What's worse, individually, the Terps are so up and down from game to game. Layman goes off at VT, then is ice cold against UVA today. Len has stretches in every game (sometimes the entire game), when he is completely invisible. Charles shows some amazing post moves, then commits silly fouls that keep him on the bench.
What we can count on so far this season are 13-18 TO each game, a different high scorer each game, and several plays every game that leave Terps fans scratching their heads wondering how the team makes the same mistakes they made in November.
2. The Terps are NOT an NCAA Tournament team this year. It's time everyone came to realize this. Whether fans blame it on their lack of experience, Mark Turgeon, or any specific other factors, it doesn't matter. All signs point to the same conclusion: Maryland will not be dancing in March, barring a string of 4-straight wins starting Thursday, Mar 14 in Greensboro.
3. The Terps lack solid leadership. On the floor, the team's lone senior coming into this year was James Padgett. With all due respect to him, he is quiet, reserved, and not the kind of player to rally the team in a pivotal moment. Enter Dez Wells. He has without a doubt stepped up as the leader of the team. But despite his best efforts (2nd on team in PPG, 3rd in RPG, 2nd in APG), he also leads the team in TO per game with 3.0 (no other player on the team has more than 1.9). From the bench, Turgeon's lineup changes have come under fire some this season as well. Despite the obvious questions (Where was the Terps' best offensive weapon at VT, Jake Layman, during the last 8 minutes on Thursday?How does Mitchell, the team's 2nd leading rebounder at 6.2 RPG, only get 9 minutes in the game today against UVA?), the bigger questions in my mind are about improvement. Although the Terps are a very young team, how can they still be struggling with unforced turnovers, an abysmal offense, and a lack of motivation at times? These are seemingly correctable errors which are still showing up on the court 3 months later. Additionally, in terms of motivation, how do you not get your team up to play in a virtual must-win game against UVA? The Terps came out flat, sluggish, and got outhustled on their own home floor today. Good teams (read: NCAA Tournament teams) simply do NOT get outplayed that badly at home.
4. Alex Len will not be a serious contributor to an NBA team next year. That isn't to say he won't be a lottery pick based on his amazing potential. However, watching Alex struggle to assert himself against physical, but smaller, ACC forwards is mind boggling. Is this partially on the coaching staff for not calling plays to get him open? Maybe. But oftentimes, there seems to be a lack of effort and a lack of execution on Len's part as well. In any event, there's no doubt he would greatly benefit from another season in College Park, and no doubt the Terps would greatly benefit from having Len on campus for another year.
What we don't know:
1. Can Mark Turgeon improve Maryland into more than a middle-of-the-pack team? The Terps haven't been relevant in the ACC since Mr. Vasquez was walking around as BMOC. Although some question Turgeon's recruiting, I firmly believe Seth, Jake, Shaq, and Chuck are very solid with each showing high potential to improve over their years in College Park. Landing Dez Wells, Evan Smotrycz, and Logan Aronhalt was huge for Turgeon's staff as well, and hopefully Maryland can continue to keep an eye out for solid transfer players, something we didn't see during the last few years of the Gary Williams era. Although he missed out on the Harrisons, Roddy Peters is Turgeon's highest-ranked recruit ever.
But recruiting is only half the battle. On the court, can Turgeon get the most out of his players? This year's squad certainly looked talented enough to be an ACC contender this year, but inconsistency and TO's have plagued them all season (see above). Over the past two ACC seasons, I've only seen one "good win" (this year vs (14) NCST) and only one "bad loss" (last year @GT). Other than those two games, the Terps have generally beaten the teams they should've beaten (VT, Wake, Clemson, BC, etc) and lost to the teams who should've beaten them (Duke, UNC, etc). This places them very much in the middle of the pack. Terps fans aren't (and shouldn't be) satisfied with mediocrity. I'm not, by any means, insinuating that Turgeon is satisfied with mediocrity, but the million-dollar question is whether or not he can take the steps required to push Maryland back into contender status.
2. Can Roddy Peters be the PG the Terps desperately need? Despite my fellow blogger's hatred for Marshall, he keyed the Tar Heels' success in 2011 and 2012 after Ole Roy inserted him into the starting lineup in place of Larry Drew II. The Heels had plenty of weapons (including the same fellow blogger's favorite), but had no one to get them the ball and play consistent PG. Marshall made the difference as a pass-first facilitator.
The Terps will face a very similar situation next year. With many combo guards but no clear PG on this roster, can Roddy Peters put the ball where it needs to be? And will his shoulder heal in time to get him a solid off-season of practice and preparation?
Only time will tell. As always, go Terps! See you at Comcast on Saturday.
Wednesday, February 6, 2013
Wake Wakes Somnabulent Terps Offense
Getting Wake Forest to come to your home arena has to be one of the great get-wells in all the land. There are teams that are bad on the road. Maryland has only one road win all year so far. Then there are teams that are really bad on the road. The kind that might only win one game the entire year at an opponent's arena. But then, when you think you've hit bottom, is Jeff Bzdzelik and whatever team he's coaching, racking up a 2-43 road record. Literally. That's his road record at Colorado and Wake Forest. How he still retains employment and handsome compensation is one of the great mysteries of not only basketball but the world.
There really isn't much to say about a game where your team has the fifth highest shooting percentage in school history, and an eFG% nearing 80%, that isn't effusive praise. The more the year goes on, the more it seems that Maryland isn't a bad three-point shooting team so much as an inconsistent one. This was obviously one of their better days. Logan Aronhalt seems to have regained form over the past few games, and Jake Layman is absolutely torrid since ACC play started. Seth Allen got his groove back as well - finally - and Dez Wells and Nick Faust show some range at times. Only Pe'shon Howard seems like a lost cause out there, but since it's been seemingly weeks since he made any type of positive play, that isn't a surprise.
SHOT CHART
Howard: (0-1, 0-0, 0-0, 0-0)
Faust: (1-2, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1)
Wells: (3-5, 0-0, 0-1, 1-1)
Padgett: (3-3, 3-3, 0-0, 0-0)
Len: (5-6, 1-1, 0-0, 0-0)
Allen: (1-3, 0-1, 0-0, 3-4)
Aronhalt: (1-1, 1-1, 0-0, 3-4)
Layman: (0-0, 0-0, 0-0, 4-6)
Mitchell: (2-3, 0-1, 0-0, 0-0)
Cleare: (2-2, 0-0, 0-0, 0-0)
ON TO BLACKSBURG
Next up is Virginia Tech, on the road. We all know the Terps' road woes, and the Hokies have been downright feisty the last two games, taking North Carolina and Miami to the limit. But make no mistake, this is an absolute must win for any team with aspirations of more than an NIT invitation. The Hokies have lost 10 out of 14, and even with the ability to deploy a rotation of more realistic depth now, they're not one of the better teams in the conference. They would have beaten North Carolina with any reasonable type of game from Erick Green (5-17 2FG) so it's certainly not ridiculous to think that VT can upset a given team at home with the nice game they had from their supporting cast. That being said, it's tough to expect Robert Brown, Jarell Eddie and Cadarian Raines will all crack double figures, so let's call this Terps by 9 as they pull away late.
There really isn't much to say about a game where your team has the fifth highest shooting percentage in school history, and an eFG% nearing 80%, that isn't effusive praise. The more the year goes on, the more it seems that Maryland isn't a bad three-point shooting team so much as an inconsistent one. This was obviously one of their better days. Logan Aronhalt seems to have regained form over the past few games, and Jake Layman is absolutely torrid since ACC play started. Seth Allen got his groove back as well - finally - and Dez Wells and Nick Faust show some range at times. Only Pe'shon Howard seems like a lost cause out there, but since it's been seemingly weeks since he made any type of positive play, that isn't a surprise.
SHOT CHART
Howard: (0-1, 0-0, 0-0, 0-0)
Faust: (1-2, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1)
Wells: (3-5, 0-0, 0-1, 1-1)
Padgett: (3-3, 3-3, 0-0, 0-0)
Len: (5-6, 1-1, 0-0, 0-0)
Allen: (1-3, 0-1, 0-0, 3-4)
Aronhalt: (1-1, 1-1, 0-0, 3-4)
Layman: (0-0, 0-0, 0-0, 4-6)
Mitchell: (2-3, 0-1, 0-0, 0-0)
Cleare: (2-2, 0-0, 0-0, 0-0)
ON TO BLACKSBURG
Next up is Virginia Tech, on the road. We all know the Terps' road woes, and the Hokies have been downright feisty the last two games, taking North Carolina and Miami to the limit. But make no mistake, this is an absolute must win for any team with aspirations of more than an NIT invitation. The Hokies have lost 10 out of 14, and even with the ability to deploy a rotation of more realistic depth now, they're not one of the better teams in the conference. They would have beaten North Carolina with any reasonable type of game from Erick Green (5-17 2FG) so it's certainly not ridiculous to think that VT can upset a given team at home with the nice game they had from their supporting cast. That being said, it's tough to expect Robert Brown, Jarell Eddie and Cadarian Raines will all crack double figures, so let's call this Terps by 9 as they pull away late.
Saturday, February 2, 2013
Snaer'd
I just wonder why you would leave a man with a reputation for clutch three point shooting open to take a clutch three point shot as time winds down. For all the good Dezmine Wells did last night, the decision to double (triple?) down on a driving Ian Miler instead of staying with Snaer was inexcusable
Maryland was doomed from the start of the play. Nick Faust got rubbed off a (possibly moving) baseline screen by Miller. Once Miller caught the ball three men descended upon him - none of which were the man assigned to mark him. My math is rusty, but I'm pretty sure that guaranteed that at least one Seminole would be open. Worse than that, Miller than got into the lane nearly unmolested by the defense. Credit him for the heads up play for finding Snaer after Dez Wells lost his damn mind, and after that it was almost as academic as a layup.
Many will look at Dez Wells' 8-12 night from the field (19 points) and the tough shots he made and say he kept us in the game. True to an extent, but while I hate to harp on the night's leading scorer, his six turnovers are unacceptably high. The Terps had 71 points in 49 possessions where they didn't turn the ball over, good for about 1.4 points per trip. So true, Dez had 19 points, but you simply can't look at that without debiting it by eight or so points for all the unforced errors that ended possessions.
Maryland was doomed from the start of the play. Nick Faust got rubbed off a (possibly moving) baseline screen by Miller. Once Miller caught the ball three men descended upon him - none of which were the man assigned to mark him. My math is rusty, but I'm pretty sure that guaranteed that at least one Seminole would be open. Worse than that, Miller than got into the lane nearly unmolested by the defense. Credit him for the heads up play for finding Snaer after Dez Wells lost his damn mind, and after that it was almost as academic as a layup.
There isn't much more to say. The offense actually came to play, looking nearly well-oiled for the first time seemingly since Greivis Vasquez was on campus, or at very least since the Virginia Tech game earlier this month. The Terps scored 71 points in 65 possessions, a solid performance, but in the end turnovers were the undoing. Maryland was -10 in that battle, coughing the rock up 16 times versus only six takeaways. You can't do that.
Many will look at Dez Wells' 8-12 night from the field (19 points) and the tough shots he made and say he kept us in the game. True to an extent, but while I hate to harp on the night's leading scorer, his six turnovers are unacceptably high. The Terps had 71 points in 49 possessions where they didn't turn the ball over, good for about 1.4 points per trip. So true, Dez had 19 points, but you simply can't look at that without debiting it by eight or so points for all the unforced errors that ended possessions.
So it's on the next one. I said before this game that The Terps Really Need This One or Else, so, uh I guess they really, really pretty please with sugar on top need to go ahead and beat 10-10 Wake Forest at home on the courts of Comcast tomorrow afternoon.
To that end, I'm pretty confident that this will be more like Virginia Tech at home than Boston College at home. The Deacs aren't too dissimilar to the Hokies. While the Hokies have a competent offense and an Ivy-League level defense, the Deacons are similarly bad on both sides of the ball. The reason I point to the similarities is that it's one or two guys and then not much else. Sure, no one on Wake is as fantastic as Erick Green is for VT, but then Travis McKie and CJ Harris is as good a one-two punch as a bad team will have.
Harris isn't a huge volume shooter, but his percentages (51/42/83) are outstanding and he'll get to the line a ton. McKie also has similar numbers, albeit trading a few points of accuracy for increased usage. He's also a very strong rebounder for a 6-7 de facto PF. After those two, with six freshman and a sophomore rounding out the rotation, there isn't much. Devin Thomas is very good rebounder and defender, giving Wake Forest its only legitimate player with size at 6-9. He had an outstanding 29-14 game in the upset win over NC State last week and has become a consistent double figure scorer in ACC play.
Long gone are the days of Dino Gaudio making a Good Sauce, and the Jeff Bzzz era is still at least another year from being a danger to sting anyone. Kenpom and Vegas both call it Terps -11. I'll say the Terps keep the offensive chops they found against the Seminoles and win it by 17 going away.
To that end, I'm pretty confident that this will be more like Virginia Tech at home than Boston College at home. The Deacs aren't too dissimilar to the Hokies. While the Hokies have a competent offense and an Ivy-League level defense, the Deacons are similarly bad on both sides of the ball. The reason I point to the similarities is that it's one or two guys and then not much else. Sure, no one on Wake is as fantastic as Erick Green is for VT, but then Travis McKie and CJ Harris is as good a one-two punch as a bad team will have.
Harris isn't a huge volume shooter, but his percentages (51/42/83) are outstanding and he'll get to the line a ton. McKie also has similar numbers, albeit trading a few points of accuracy for increased usage. He's also a very strong rebounder for a 6-7 de facto PF. After those two, with six freshman and a sophomore rounding out the rotation, there isn't much. Devin Thomas is very good rebounder and defender, giving Wake Forest its only legitimate player with size at 6-9. He had an outstanding 29-14 game in the upset win over NC State last week and has become a consistent double figure scorer in ACC play.
Long gone are the days of Dino Gaudio making a Good Sauce, and the Jeff Bzzz era is still at least another year from being a danger to sting anyone. Kenpom and Vegas both call it Terps -11. I'll say the Terps keep the offensive chops they found against the Seminoles and win it by 17 going away.
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