Showdown at Cameron

Saturday at 1 PM might be the end of an era, the same way that last Saturday at noon might have been the end of an era.  Maryland travels to Duke for what could be their final game at Cameron Indoor Stadium before their move to the Big Ten in 2014-15.  The schedule for next season has yet to be released with the expanded 14 team ACC so it remains to be seen whether the teams will play a home and home series or only a single game at Cameron or the Comcast Center.  Whenever it happens, it'll be the first time since 1953-54 that the Terps won't travel down to Durham to take on the Blue Devils.

Duke is still currently #1, but as you surely know by now, they were absolutely destroyed on the road against Miami, taking the third worst loss ever for a top ranked team and the program's worst in almost thirty years.  With last weekend's loss to NC State, Duke sits at now 3-2, two full games behind conference leading Miami.  No doubt the storylines write themselves - the Blue Devils can't win without Kelly, the team shot only 4-23 from outside the arc against Miami - and while those ring true, the simple reality is that Duke lost its two conference games because it played horrendous defense, allowing 84 points in 72 possessions against NC State and 90 in 79 possessions last night against the Canes.  Both teams got to the line at will, and destroyed Duke from inside the arc.  The Wolfpack was 26-51 and Miami was 24-39.

Ryan Kelly won't win Defensive Player of the Year awards, but he's a very good shotblocker who presents a serious matchup problem defensively at 6-11 guarding power forwards typically several inches smaller.  Now Mason Plumlee's interior counterparts are Amile Jefferson (6-8) and Josh Hairston (6-7).  It makes sense then that Kenny Kadji and CJ Leslie shot a combined 16-24 from inside the arc in the two losses.  This isn't the whole story, but it's going to be a large part of it going forward until Ryan Kelly rises from the ashes.

I should also point out what Luke Winn mentioned in his power rankings (from before the Miami game).  Essentially Duke went from having Kelly, a guy who draws more fouls than he commits, to two guys who do the exact opposite, particularly in the case of Josh Hairston, who adds a huge amount of fouls to his lack of shot blocking.  Again, Kelly might not be Ron Artest, but blocking shots, being super tall for your position, and avoiding fouls is a pretty good statistical base defensively.

Now...well I guess Maryland factors in here somewhere.  The issue for the Terps is that they don't have a CJ Leslie or Kenny Kadji.  None of the three non-Alex Len big men have the kind of length and athleticism that those two have, and while Shaq Cleare and Chuck Mitchell could certainly use their girth to create issues for the much smaller Duke 4s, neither are polished enough 20 games into their career to feel comfortable that they can take advantage.  Turge's best bet may be a small lineup with Jake Layman at the four.  Given his recent productivity with two 15+ point games in ACC play already, he could have a big night.  Or he could fail to register an impact at all as he did in the other four games.

The other issue is that Layman at the four almost certainly necessitates starting Pe'shon Howard or perhaps Seth Allen at the one, which will lead mainly to more plodding half court sets that go nowhere.  Hopefully I'll get a chance to finish rewatching the Boston College game, but it seemed clear that the only time Maryland wasn't dysfunctional offensively was during the last ten minutes when they got out and ran with the ball in Dez Wells' hands.  Wells can't "run the point" in the traditional sense, but he can attack the basket, finish, and has great court vision to set up the open man on the perimeter.

In any event, this game won't determine the Terps season.  A win would be enormous, but the team hasn't been consistent enough that we can trust them to validate it with wins in the games they should win.  Meanwhile, in the likely event of a loss, next week's game against Florida State on the road looms very large for a team that could find itself in need of 8 of their last 10 just to make the tournament should they swing and miss on the road trip.