Sports Tsars: Fixing Conference (Re)Alignment

"You either die a hero or you live long enough to see yourself become the villain." -Harvey Dent, The Dark Knight (2008)

And so we have reached the point where the NCAA, college presidents, athletic directors, and the college athletic machine as a whole have fulfilled this prophecy. Sure, they may have started swaying towards the dark side some time ago. But it can't be denied that we are coming to a terminal point with amateurism and interscholastic athletics that could signal the end of college sports as we have come to know them.

Amateurism was once championed as a white knight of sorts, untainted by the dangers of money and burden of professional expectations. The athletes were seen as pure competitors, playing for nothing more than school pride and for the love of the game. A select few would leave early to ply their trade in the pro ranks (with the truly exceptional skipping college altogether) though most would stay to finish their degree and be shining examples of the student-athlete ideal.

That idea, if it ever truly existed (it certainly hasn't in the case of baseball, where athletes have been forgoing college for as long as there has been a professional league) has long since passed away. What we are left with instead, is a two-face hypocritical system where schools, administrators, and businessmen profit massively on one end and spew all sorts of nonsense about the wonderful amateur nature of student athletes out the other. While we think in many cases these students lose track of how good they have it with full scholarships (that's not to say we don't support some form of additional payment to the revenue athletes), the fact is that they have a raw deal. Coaches can transfer at will to new schools, leaving their players in the dust in the process. Students have to sit out a year. Administrators enact an insane number of silly, nearly impossible rules in order to defend the sanctity of amateurism. Students can lose eligibility if the don't follow these petty rules to the T. It's easy to see how the system has become so villainous to athletes.

At the heart of the matter, and current linchpin of fans' wrath (for the athletes it's the lack of pay), is the constant reshuffling of schools and their athletic conferences. While conference realignment has existed since the turn of the century - the 19th century! - it has only recently become such a hot button issue. This outrage is due to the increasing nature of money being the driving force behind these decisions (in addition to every single other choice the NCAA and its schools have made this century). In the past schools changed conferences for a better geographical fit, for a more equal level of competition, or to move one sport at a time to a separate conference when the current one did not carry that sport (i.e. Hopkins moving its lacrosse program to the B1G). Now days, we have schools in New Jersey/Maryland joining a mid-west conference and schools in Indiana/Kentucky joining a conference comprised of universities whose states touch the Atlantic ocean, all in the name of Benjamin.

Things really came to a head in the summer of 2010 through 2011, when the idea of a superconference first started looking like more of a probability than a possibility. First came news that the Pac-10 was looking to add six teams from the Big XII, effectively killing that conference in the name of creating college athletics first modern superconference. There were rumors that the Big Ten was looking to do the same before settling on adding just Nebraska for twelve teams. Then the dominoes started to fall rapidly. Colorado and Utah to the new Pac-12. Texas A&M and Missouri to the SEC. Syracuse and Pittsburgh to the ACC. This game of musical chairs, an arms race in search of television money and athletic superiority, even led to rumors of the top teams would secede from the NCAA for football and form their own league. This all eventually stopped, especially with the recent Grant of Rights passing in the ACC. 

We bring all of this up because Steve and I, as well as the rest of the country, are tired of this never ending shuffle that is ruining the things we love about college athletics (the traditions, the rivalries, the road trips) that are getting lost in the quest for more. And, more importantly, we have some fun ways to fix this problem (as well as way too much time on our hands). These solutions are not thoroughly researched and are meant to be nothing more than a fun exercise where we have spent entirely too much energy coming up with hypotheticals that we personally (and perhaps some others) would rather see than the garbage that is reality (where Maryland may be forced to be rivals with - shudder - Rutgers).

Steve and I have come up with a couple conference scenarios that we believe to be an improvement on the current conferences. This first one takes on the idea that we are destined to see a large subset of schools break away from the NCAA by virtue of forming their own superconferences for football. By using what we know about history and conference preferences, we believe we have a logical alignment of the teams that may be most likely to break away. 

Based on this scenario, we have determined four conferences of sixteen teams (there we sixty four teams in the "power 5" at the time of this article) to be that best approach. Each conference would be further broken down into divisions of eight teams for the purposes of football. Each team would then play each of the other seven teams in their division every year (alternating home/away year to year) along with two teams from the other division (rotating every year to allow a school to play every school from the other division in a four year cycle). A nine game conference schedule is already being implemented in the B1G for the 2015 season, so this matches up with what some of the conferences are planning. The winners of each division would meet in a conference championship game in order to determine the winner of each superconference. Given the new four team playoff system, it would seem plausible to assume that each conference winner would then be chosen to participate in the playoff to decide the national champion. More likely than not, this would quickly expand to an eight team playoff to allow for at-large bids from contenders that did not win their conference (mostly the SEC). As for what happens to the other bowl games, that's a rabbit hole best left for another time and post.

While this is a mostly football guided scenario, it stands to reason that these superconferences would stay together for basketball as well (where they would still be a part of the NCAA). In order to create a balanced schedule while also trying to promote basketball rivalries via the home/home, we have further split the conferences into four team pods based upon geography. Each team would play a home/home with their pod members in addition to playing the other twelve teams once each year (alternating home/away) for a total of eighteen games. A fifteen game conference schedule would be the most balanced, and therefore most fair, but hurts the traditional feel of being able to play your rivals at home every year. Our alignment allows for for this without sacrificing the balance.

We have provided rationales for the conferences, explaining why teams were placed in each conference, why others were passed over, and how the conferences stack up. If a team is already in one of the four precursor conferences, they will remain in said conference (Maryland will stay in the B1G, Missouri in the SEC, etc.). While this is a hypothetical exercise, it is based in reality and not a fantasy draft of sorts. We are trying to prevent any future warts to the coneferences, not fix the ones that already exist. We will tackle those in our next exercise.

So, without further ado... Superconferences!

Pac-16
West
Cascade Pod
Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State
California Pod
Stanford, California, Southern California, California - Los Angeles
East
Rocky Mountain Pod
Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado
High Plains Pod
Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

Rationale:
The western division of this conference was by far the easiest to construct out of the eight made in total. It is simply the eight existing Pac members who are found in the three most western states of the conference (who were all also members of the precursor Pac-8). No other division listed has the history, tradition, and perfect geography than these eight teams. Not much else needs to be said in order to defend these selections and placements.
The eastern division, on the other hand, does require some explanation when considering the four newest teams that we have added to the conference. When the Big XII originally appeared destined for dissolution, there were six teams considered by the Pac-10 for expansion. Two of those have since found their way to new conferences (Texas A&M to the SEC and Colorado to the current Pac-12). The other four universities targeted were Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas Tech. As you can see, three of these teams made their way to our new Pac-16 superconference. However, we have replaced Texas Tech with Baylor as the fourth team in the High Plains Pod. There are a couple reasons for this. First and foremost, we believe Baylor to currently be - and in the future to be - a superior athletic program to Texas Tech. In recent years Baylor has made two Elite Eights (2010, 2012) in men's basketball, won two National Titles (2005, 2012) in women's basketball, and winning the Big XII this past year in football. They are opening a brand new $250 million stadium that will be one of the premier home stadiums in college football. Texas Tech has had some success in football this century as well, but simply can't compete with Baylors success on the hardwood.
In addition to the on field production of Baylor, Waco is a much better fit with the other three cities in this pod. Waco, along with Austin, Norman, and Stillwater are all found along the north-south traversing Interstate-35. In fact, Waco is located in between Norman and Austin on I-35, meaning limited travel time is added to the pod as a whole. Lubbock, meanwhile, is five and half hours west of both Norman and Austin, with no direct route by bus. It makes sense to keep the pod along I-35 to limit travel expenses and encourage rivalries and fan travel.
Finally, Baylor University is a more nationally renown school than Texas Tech University. Baylor has a higher US News ranking (75 vs. 161) and Forbes (235 vs. 447) in both publications 2013 rankings. A university's academic profile can be an important piece of information when determining a school's best fit. The Pac-12 is made up of both public and private universities, most of which are internationally renown research universities (Cal, UCLA, and Washington are all top 20 worldwide according to the ARWU). Should Texas Tech come in and join the conference, they would rank toward the lowest end of the academic spectrum in the conference (depending on the ranking publication used). Thus, it really doesn't match the Pac's overall academic profile quite as well as Baylor. One could argue that Oklahoma State's academic reputation is not much better than Texas Tech's, but the Cowboy's superior athletic endeavors and location to the I-35 corridor make it an easy choice to be included.
As a whole, the new Pac-16 was one of the easier superconferences to construct. With twelve teams already a part of the conference, the Pac need the most teams added of the four superconferences. But with the failed 2010 expansion as our guide and and intelligent substitution to the conference newcomers, we were able to construct a formidable conference worthy of being considered "super".

Conference Analysis: 
NCAA Football Titles (AP or Coaches) - 21 (by 6 teams)
NCAA Basketball Titles - 18 (7 teams)
Conference Championship Game - Levi's Stadium
Conference Tournament Site - Staples Center

B1G
West
Corn Belt Pod
Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Iowa State
Great Lakes Pod
Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern
East
Central Lowlands Pod
Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue
Appalachia Pod
Ohio State, Penn State, Maryland, Rutgers

Rationale:
While the Pac-12 had more teams added to it in order to reach sixteen, trying to figure out which two to add to the B1G was a slightly more involved process. Where history could be used to more easily place teams in the Pac, history actually works against the B1G as the teams who would be the most perfect fits are already attached to other conferences. Missouri moved to the SEC when the Big XII began showing signs of weakness and Pittsburgh (which doesn't add the TV market the B1G wants, but fits the geographic and academic footprint of the conference) was gobbled up by the ACC. And, of course, there's the big fish: Notre Dame. Plain and simple, Notre Dame belongs in the B1G. The location in northern Indiana, the football rivalries, the huge football stadium, the hockey team, the lofty academic rankings (17th US News), the massive endowment, and the alumni. It all screams B1G. But after many years of pressure and expanding conference realignment Notre Dame finally showed their hand when it came to choosing a conference and picked the ACC over the B1G. Sure, they aren't full members in football and therefore, for the purposes of this exercise could be moved to the B1G in full. But they had their chance, still wanted control, and went looking elsewhere.
So we are left with two spots to fill and several choices. Kansas, Kansas State, Cincinnati, Iowa State, UConn, and WVU are the schools that are available for the B1G (and the ACC and SEC as well). UConn is the first to be put aside, due mostly to location. Ironically, its included here due to its location and the hope that its proximity to New York could solidify the market enough to move the B1G network to a more basic cable package. I suspect this would be more likely with Syracuse and Rutgers or Syracuse and UConn. As such, UConn is too much of a geographical outlier for the B1G. WVU is next and it is simply a case of academics. They are not highly ranked (170 in US News, 360 Forbes) and lack the pedigree of a Nebraska to make the low end (for the B1G) academics tolerable. Kansas State gets axed for much the same reason. Cincinnati is an interesting school to consider for the B1G. The school's academics fall towards the bottom of the B1G, but not so much so to be dismissed entirely (they have a top 108 ARWU ranking, same as the next school we'll discuss). And they have a solid athletic history to consider along with their location and B1G endowment (over $1 billion). Unfortunately, they fail to "wow" enough to overtake the two schools that we selected for the B1G. Cincinnati is a good fit in many ways, but doesn't excel where it counts the most.
And then there were two, Kansas and Iowa State. Kansas fails to distinguish itself in the field of academia and on the gridiron, but can the B1G really pass over one of the Blue Bloods of Basketball. Kansas would give the conference another traditional power to pair with Indiana and Michigan State and it's a geographical fit that would help solidify the Kansas City market for the B1G network. 
We were actually quite surprised to have Iowa State as the last B1G program to be added. Their sports programs are very up and down, having made little national impact since their last hey days at the turn of the century in basketball. What really surprised us was Iowa State's membership in the Association of American Universities (AAU). This association includes just about every public and private research university worth a damn (Nebraska's current lack of membership would have most likely kept it out of the B1G). With the CIC a foundation on which the conference has been built, Iowa State's ticket was punched the moment it was the last AAU university available in the region. Further reasons that Mizzou and Pittsburgh would have been excellent candidates.
At last, a brief note on the structure of the B1G divisions (no more Legends and Leaders!) and pods. As is fairly obvious with a quick check of the map, the divisions are divided by strict east and west geography, despite any perceived balance of power tipping towards the east. All of the major football rivalries are held intact (Ohio St vs. Michigan, Minnesota vs. Wisconsin, etc.) and a new intrastate rivalry is formed. In fact, the only downside we can see through our Calvert and Crossland tinted lenses is that Maryland will undoubtedly have Rutgers forced upon it as a rival. Little about conference realignment sounds worse than having Rutgers (of one single national title in fencing fame) as your supposed athletic rivals. Sigh.

Conference Analysis:
NCAA Football Titles - 21 (7 teams)
NCAA Basketball Titles - 14 (7 teams)
Conference Championship - Lucas Oil Stadium
Conference Tournament - United Center

ACC
North
Colonial Pod
Syracuse, Notre Dame, Boston College, Connecticut
Blue Ridge Pod
Pittsburgh, Louisville, Virginia, Virginia Tech
South
Tobacco Road Pod
North Carolina, North Carolina State, Duke, Wake Forest
Coastal Plains Pod
Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Miami

Rationale:
Some of the same schools that would be competing for a B1G spot would also be fighting to get into the ACC's single open spot (since Notre Dame won't do the intelligent thing and join the B1G already, preferably at Rutgers expense). UConn, Cincinnati and WVU are the three schools that make the most geographical sense and would probably be the only three considered at this stage. The same issues that plagued Cincinnati and WVU for B1G inclusion come up here as the ACC selects the team of their choice. While academics are considered on a slightly less strict level in the ACC, the conference is still home to some of the country's brightest universities that would probably make WVU too hard to swallow with no FSU football or Louisville basketball to chase it with after. Cincinnati meanwhile, didn't get any more exceptional since we last discussed them and will once again get passed over for a program with a little more glamour.
That team is UConn, whose basketball prestige pushes them into a coveted superconference spot. To be clear, that is the only athletic reason UConn would be selected. UConn's football program just completed an almost winless season in a football stadium that is forty-five minutes from campus (basketball is also played part-time thirty minutes away in Hartford) and would instantly become the worst team in the conference with only Duke as competition (and Duke was at least competitive in their most recent major bowl game). The university itself is unremarkable academically, though much better than expected (57th in US News, 140th Forbes) and certainly not harming its case.
The ACC will be home to the two most awkward pods in the country, the Colonial and Blue Ridge pods. While the North division makes sense in a cut and dry geographical separation for the ACC South, the inclusion of Notre Dame (ugh) makes for the biggest geographical outlier in any of the superconferences. It doesn't look so poor in the context of seven other teams stretching from Kentucky, to Virginia, to Massachusetts. But in the context of a pod with only three other teams, Notre Dame's distance does make for some oddities. We originally had Pittsburgh and Notre Dame switched, before determining that it might be easier for Pittsburgh to form new rivalries with UVA and VT than it would be for Notre Dame. Especially with Notre Dame having some lingering Big East relationships with the other three teams in its basketball pod. This alignment just made a little more sense in the end.

Conference Analysis:
NCAA Football Titles - 21 (7 teams)
NCAA Basketball Titles - 19 (6 teams)
Conference Championship - Bank of America Field
Conference Tournament - Verizon Center

SEC
South-East
Gulf Coast Pod
Alabama, Louisiana State, Ole Miss, Mississippi State
Wetlands Pod
Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Auburn
North-West
Tennessee Valley Pod
Kentucky, West Virginia, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Tex-Arkana Pod
Missouri, Arkansas, Texas Christian, Texas A&M

Rationale:
Here we are, the last conference to discuss. The best part of reaching this portion of the exercise? We can finally throw academics out the window. Nothing but reading, riting, and rithmatic for these programs (poor Vanderbilt). And you know what that means. We finally have a home for WVU! West Virginia's football and basketball programs are too good to get completely passed over by all three eastern superpowers. And, all jokes aside, WVU is actually a very good fit in the SEC. Home to a small town that bleeds blue and gold on Saturdays in the fall with a sizable and well known fan base. They also bring along a decent basketball program that would instantly place among the top five in the SEC. The SEC doesn't need more superpowered football programs, just ones with a solid history that can be slotted in to add depth and occasionally compete for a major bowl.
Leading us to the final team of sixty-four selected for this conference building exercise, TCU. Why TCU instead of Kansas State and Cincinnati? Because TCU has been a more consistent and successful football team of the three since the turn of the century, with a long, storied history to go with it. Kansas State's success extends a little further back into the early 90's, but was historically woeful prior to Bill Snyder's hiring and re-hiring lending to the belief that TCU's recent success is more sustainable than Kansas State's. In addition, Ft. Worth feels much more like a proper southern town than Manhattan and Cincinnati. One could argue that this should work against WVU as well, and it does to a point. But WVU's athletic department is much larger than the other two and it fits more easily into a pod with Vanderbilt, Kentucky, and Tennessee than Kansas State does with Texas A&M, Arkansas and Missouri.
Bringing us to the crazy divisions you see before you. There is a method to the madness here. Namely, preserving as many rivalries as we can (but really just the Iron Bowl). And as odd as that North-West division looks at first, each school resides in a state that touches another in the division from Texas all the way up and around to West Virginia. It would be impossible to preserve all of the historic rivalries in the conference, but we believe that most of the teams would be happy enough with this arrangement with Tennessee the most likely to be upset.

Conference Analysis:
NCAA Football Titles - 23 (8 teams)
NCAA Basketball Titles - 11 (3 teams)
Conference Championship - Georgia Dome
Conference Tournament - Smoothie King Center

ALL of the Transfers

I couldn't even get the motivation to write a year in review post before all hell broke loose this evening as Jeff Ermann reported that Roddy Peters, Nick Faust, and Shaq Cleare will all seek greener pastures on the transfer market.  While none was inherently shocking - only Seth Allen and Jake Layman seemed absolute locks to return next season - the suddenness of all three transfers breaking on the same night certainly was surprising.

Nick Faust was both Gary Williams' last recruit and Mark Turgeon's first.  Faust came in with much hype, a top 50 player out of Baltimore's City College who chose the Terps over Florida State, Oregon State, and Marquette at a time when a top 50 local coming to College Park happened entirely too rarely.

He started by being thrust into the role of point guard as a freshman instead of his more natural wing position.  Faust didn't thrive there but performed admirably out of position on an extremely thin team.  Big things were expected from Faust each of the past two years, but he didn't come close to meeting them.  A large part of that was because of how out of line expectations were for a top 50 recruit, but there's no doubt that at times Nick would fall in love with his jump shot too much or swagged out when he shouldn't have.  Still, the team finished 22nd in defensive efficiency, an improvement even with the loss of Alex Len, and Faust was a huge part of it.  He was arguably the team's best defensive player, certainly on the perimeter.

Though he took slightly fewer shots this year, many of his numbers were incredible similar to his sophomore campaign.  His eFG% dipped from 47.5 to 46.6, his TS% went from 51.4 to 51.2, and his rebounding was remarkably similar at 11.3/3.7 compared to 11.6/3.8 in 2012-13.  That was probably what frustrated people most about Faust.  He simply did not improve very much as an upperclassmen this year.  That didn't make him a bad player, but he wasn't a star.

I had high hopes that Faust would thrive next year as a backup and designated defensive stopper while allowing a potentially very strong offensive backcourt of Melo Trimble, Seth Allen, Jake Layman, and Dez Wells to carry the scoring load, but now that role will fall elsewhere.  Those four could take the lion's share of the minutes, and now the path is clear for Dion Wiley and Jared Nickens to take on expanded roles if they prove capable.  There is plenty of talent still here, but less of a logjam.  It's not the end of the world.

Part of that is the departure of Roddy Peters.  If Turgeon doesn't make it past the next couple year's as the program's head man, the saga of point guard recruiting in the 2013 class may turn out to be the story.  The Terps went down to the wire with the highly touted Harrison twins before they declared for Kentucky, and Roddy Peters, another local top-50 prospect, was thought to be an incredibly strong consolation prize.  The Terps took his commitment rather than pursuing Philly's Rysheed Jordan or other lesser recruits still available.

While Peters looked good early on against weaker competition, and certainly had a flair for spectacular passes, his own weaknesses were quickly exposed against better teams.  While he experienced many of the normal bumps that a young PG will have in his freshmen season, his complete lack of offensive versatility marred his future outlook.  Despite playing significant minutes all season, Peters made just one three point field goal, and incredible statistic for a guard at this level.  That was not his only problem this year, but a guard without the talent and/or confidence to hit the open jumper from three becomes a much easier defensive assignment.  It's not hard to stop penetration when you don't have to respect that jump shot, which is why it's so important that a slasher like Peters at least develop an Adrian Bowie-level jumper to be an effective player on the offensive end.

Now Turgeon is left with only Melo and Allen, certainly more of a scorer than passer, as his options at PG, and hopefully that doesn't keep hounding us.  Those two could be a dynamite pairing, but how well they run a half-court offense is the question.

I love Shaq.  He's a guy who was clearly big on Maryland from early in his recruiting process.  He committed to HOF Gary Williams, then committed again to Mark Turgeon after Gary's retirement.  I'm not happy to see him off the team.

With all that said, Shaq was limited.  Some speculated on a lingering back injury being the culprit, but in any event, Shaq didn't thrive in any particular areas.  He was best on the defensive end, a big and strong post defender, but he lacked the athleticism to be a shot blocker and often because of his need to use physicality rather than athleticism found himself in foul trouble and on the bench.  Shaq could have provided depth because, after all, there aren't many sure things in Maryland's 2014-15 frontcourt, but there are worse gambles to take than two highly-rated, seven-foot freshmen like Michal Cekovsky and Trayvon Reed.  If even one of those can be a legit presence early, the frontcourt should be just fine.

The Field of 68 Predicted

SOUTH (MEMPHIS)(Orlando)
Florida vs Mt St Mary's/Texas Southern
Memphis vs Kansas State

(Spokane)
San Diego State vs Stephen F Austin
North Carolina vs Tulsa

(Buffalo)
Villanova vs NC Central
UConn vs Iowa

(Milwaukee)
Michigan vs UL-Lafayette
Baylor vs Gonzaga

WEST (Anaheim)
(San Diego)
Arizona vs Coastal Carolina/Cal Poly
George Washington vs Oklahoma State

(San Antonio)
Creighton vs New Mexico State
Kentucky vs BYU/NC State

(Spokane)
Iowa State vs Eastern Kentucky
Ohio State vs Xavier

(Orlando)
Louisville vs Weber State
Oregon vs Tennesseee

MIDWEST (Indianapolis)
(Saint Louis)
Wichita State vs Albany
Texas vs Pitt

(San Diego)
UCLA vs Manhattan
VCU vs North Dakota State

(Milwaukee)
Wisconsin vs Mercer
Saint Louis vs Nebraska

(Raleigh)
Duke vs American
Oklahoma vs Colorado

EAST (New York)
(Raleigh)
Virginia vs Wofford
St Joseph's vs Stanford

(San Antonio)
Michigan State vs Western Michigan
Cincinnati vs Harvard

(Buffalo)
Syracuse vs Delaware
New Mexico vs Arizona State/SMU

(Saint Louis)
Kansas vs Milwaukee
UMass vs Providence

Nine (or Thirteen Places) to see a game

THE PALESTRA

I've been here!  If your arena is known as "the cathedral of college basketball", there's a good chance it makes the list of best college hoops venues. It's hard to imagine how, uh, big the Big 5 is in Philly when you don't live there. Or at least I'm speculating that it is. Philly has a Baltimore-level passion for basketball, but unlike Baltimore it has a half dozen colleges within its confines that have a much richer history (PAT'S CATS of Towson U notwithstanding), and the Palestra was home to many of the games between those teams. It's tiny (8,722) and old (opened New Year's 1927), but that's certainly part of the charm.  Plus there have been plenty of Penn-Princeton showdowns here for Ivy League crowns, including one where Princeton came back from down 33-9 (!) at the half to take an improabable 50-49 win back to New Jersey.


CAMERON INDOOR STADIUM

Sure, it's packed with the most nerds this side of ComicCon, but be that as it may, the fans are about as passionate as you'll find. Even with a capacity of just 9,314, the miniature size of the "stadium" means that it's almost always rocking. As a Maryland fan, would there be a better feeling than walking out of Cameron with a win over a highly ranked Duke team? Not likely. There's also the mystique of just being there because tickets are tough to come by unless you're give tens of thousands to the Iron Dukes or have tons of dough for scalping.  The major downside here is that Duke is really, really good most years, especially at home, so you're likely to walk out of here having seen a Duke win, which is really less than optimal for your enjoyment.

MADISON SQUARE GARDEN

The World's Most Famous Arena may sound like typical New Yawwwk hubris, but it's probably a true statement. It's much like the Rose Bowl in that if you were born after the 1940's it loses a bit of its resonance, but still has its place in history and current day. MSG is probably known more for the Knicks these days, and gone are the days of doubleheaders and huge Christmas tournaments, but the Garden still has the 2K Sports Clasic, the Jimmy V, the Champions Classic on a rotating basis, tons of other feature games...and the NIT! Or not. But the Preseason NIT is fun, most years.  The knock here is that the Barclay's Center has become as much, if not more, of a destination for college basketball teams and fans throughout the season, particularly for Terps fans.  There's no doubt it's a nicer facility, but it has a long way to go to develop the history that the Garden has.

THE PIT

What a great name. It's called that not just to evoke the idea of stepping into the bowels of hell when you come to play the Lobos, but because it's 37 feet below street level.  Of course netting that against its 5,312 feet above sea level means it's still pretty high up in there for those of us who don't live at altitude.  New Mexico has had a renaissance lately that begin under former-coach Steve Alford, but even if you don't care to see some usually-very-good Mountain West action, you're likely going to be able to catch some NCAA Tournament action here as The Pit frequently hosts early- and regional-round games of the Dance.

RUPP ARENA

The Comcast Center is enormous, and it holds about 18,000 fans when packed. Kentucky, for a big game, can get over 24,000 fans - fully 1/3 more than Comcast at capacity. This isn't necessarily the loudest crowd, at least per capita, but it beats out the Carrier Dome in the "Huge-Ass Arena" category just by virtue of its not doubling as the school's football stadium as well.  Plus, if you go, it will always be fun to laugh at how Kentucky was on the wrong side of history in that 1966 NCAA Final in Cole Field House.  I can say with certainty that if the Terps ever have another home and home with Kentucky like they did in the 90's back when Gary actually scheduled good teams, I will be there. 

LAHAINA CIVIC CENTER

Nothing says college basketball like Feast Week, and nothing says Feast Week more than the Maui Invitational. The LCC is odd because most nights it's a tiny gym (not arena) where hosts Chaminade plays a cavalcade of teams you've never heard of in a Division that no one sees on TV, but for three days each year on Thanksgiving week, it hosts 7 of the best teams that the mainland has to offer, plus commentator extraordinaires Sean McDonough and Jay Bilas.  Amazing stuff.  There's nowhere else you could go where you have a chance to see a tournament featuring two top-10 teams battling and also some of the biggest upsets in college sports when Chaminade wins a game, which has happened seven times in the tournament's history. 

THE KENNEL

I have to admit, I've always had a soft spot for Gonzaga. I think a lot of folks are tired of them and think they're frequently overrated (possibly true), but it's amazing to me that a program at a tiny Jesuit school in the northwest with no history has managed to be one of the best programs in the country since the late 90's with a rotating cast of highly recruited players from the US and abroad, many of whom wind up playing in then NBA. McCarthey Athletic Center seats only 6,000, but watch a late night ESPN game between Gonzaga and Saint Mary's or BYU and see how loud that crowd can get.

THE INDIANA TOUR

So I'm cheating here, but if you're in Indiana, you've already gone much more horribly wrong than this list. We start out at Butler, where they played for the National Title two years running and now actually have name brand basketball programs coming in every year. Hinkle Field House is a pretty good place to see a game, and oh yeah, it's where Hoosiers took place. You can leave Indianapolis for Bloomington where you'll go to Assembly Hall, where you can see FIVE national championship banner - just watch out for falling objects. After that you make a stop in West Lafayette to watch Purdue play in Mackey Arena on a floor where the benches are below the level of the playing surface.  Then round out the Big Four in South Bend at the Joyce Center where Notre Dame has one of the best home court records in the nation.

COLE FIELD HOUSE

The one, the only.  With Maryland Madness being held here this year, it's going to happen.  When 14,500 pile into that sweatbox in the middle of campus it will be glorious.  Let's just hope that when the day comes, and the team goes on a big run to force the other coach to call a time out, the band strikes up those notes of Rock n' Roll Part II.  How much does a new roof for a 60-year-old field house cost, anyway?

Dezmine

(to the tune of Glycerine by Bush)

We needed that win, it's sinking in
Needed to beat Heels, that I can feel
We don't use our mind
It's not our kind
The moronic plays, sure were a sign

When the Terrapins wear white
My mood's gone gray
It's even worse, when we're away
We've played like piss
Remember Juan
The time that we ranked, number one

Don't Let the days go by

Dezmine
Dezmine

Playing all alone
Playing alone every game
Are you all one or are you a team?
We never get steals
And when we shoot it's worse than Dave Neal

This team played bad
Turge coached you like shit
Couldn't love him less
We're go'n to the "NIT"

Don't Let the days go by

I used to be proud of you
You couldn't change; didn't want to
Hitting some twos but you need threes
Could have made the tournament this year

Dezmine
Dezmine

Don't Let the days go by

Dezmine

Don't Let the days go by

Dezmine
Dezmine

Dezmine
Dezmine

Red unis lost again
Red unis lost again
And we fall to UNC

We've gotta win more
Instead we won less
Couldn't improve; just regress
It might be Coach T
Real simple and plain
Well thats just fun
It's why Turdge is his name

Don't let the days go by
Could have been easier on you, you, you

Dezmine
Dezmine

Dezmine
Dezmine

Our Pets Heads are Falling Off!

At some point you learn from your mistakes.  No, not the Terps, but your humble author.  After years of jumping to call things a low point, you learn to just stop doing that for fear of what will come next.  Yesterday's lost to Boston U wasn't the first time that Maryland has lost to a team from the lowly Patriot League in Comcast Center, just the most recent.  The Terps led for just 4:00 total yesterday.  For those without the benefit of a calculator, that's just 10% of the game.  The Terps basically let a team from a low-major league come into our gym and do whatever they want.

The Terriers aren't awful, of course.  There's probably little different between them and Oregon State, other than name and that no one on BU was likely recruited to play at an ACC level.  Anyone who thought Maryland would win handily yesterday either doesn't pay attention to Maryland or doesn't pay attention to the sport in general.  BU had already given George Washington and Harvard - two teams better than Maryland - trouble and were picked to win their league.  It's a team likely to play in March, whether in the NCAA or the NIT.

In the postgame, the esteemed Coach Turgeon said the following:

We can’t score 77 at home and lose, so maybe it’s on the defensive end

77 points probably ought to be enough to win in most cases, but the game was 76 possessions.  I don't want to make too much about whether Turgeon understands tempo-free statistics, and I'm sure it's not lost on him that 57% FT shooting and a dozen and a half turnovers are bad looks, but make no mistake that the offense's inability to convert were just as damaging as giving up all those open 3s to BU.

The Terps are left with the very real possibility that they won't finish above .500 overall for the first time in over 20 years.  Even if they win their next two games (no guarantee), they'll need to get to 8-10 in the conference just to get to 16-15 for the season.  While the Seth Allen injury has hurt, that's a very bleak outlook for a program in Year 3 of a rebuild.

Suck It Lunardi

Here's the bracket.  It's happening.  Terps in.  Let's goooooooooooo.

I'll bet I do better than Lunardi.


SOUTH
--
Louisville vs Western Kentucky/NC A&T
Oklahoma vs Cal
Florida vs Akron
Saint Louis vs Bucknell
Michigan State vs Florida-Gulf Coast
Oregon vs Wichita State
Pitt vs Maryland/Middle Tennessee
Kansas vs Harvard

WEST
--
Gonzaga vs Long Island/Liberty
Cincinnati vs Illinois
North Carolina vs Boise State
Kansas State vs New Mexico State
Michigan vs Northwestern State
UNLV vs Iowa State
Memphis vs Colorado
Georgetown vs Pacific

EAST
--
Miami vs James Madison
Creighton vs Missouri
Arizona vs Villanova/Saint Mary's
Wisconsin vs Valparaiso
New Mexico vs Montana
Notre Dame vs Belmont
Butler vs Ole Miss
Ohio State vs Iona

MIDWEST
--
Indiana vs Southern
North Carolina State vs Colorado State
Oklahoma State vs Temple
Marquette vs Davidson
Syracuse vs South Dakota State
VCU vs San Diego State
UCLA vs Minnesota
Duke vs Albany

And then this happened...

Click pic for full image.

So this happened...

My art direction is slacking, so I'll repost instead. New art forthcoming, now that I remembered my password.

#BEATDUKE

Oh yeah, we did that shit.  More to come.

In the meantime, enjoy the shot chart from the Virginia game!

Howard: 2-4 (1-2, 0-1, 0-0, 1-1)
Faust: 4-9 (3-3, 1-1, 0-4, 0-1)
Wells:  5-9 (3-3, 0-1, 0-0, 2-5)
Padgett: 1-2 (1-2, 0-0, 0-0, 0-0)
Len: 3-6 (3-3, 0-2, 0-1, 0-0)
Allen: 4-8 (3-5, 1-1, 0-0, 0-2)
Aronhalt: 3-7 (1-1, 0-0, 0-2, 2-4)
Layman: 1-7 (0-1, 0-0, 1-2, 0-4)
Mitchell: 1-3 (1-3, 0-0, 0-0, 0-0)
Cleare: 3-3 (3-3, 0-0, 0-0, 0-0)

But Then I Saw This

Ed. Note: But Then I Saw This is a recurring series where stats, preferably of the tempo free variety, are used to crush the very fundamentals beliefs of the author.  This is entry the first.

The always great Luke Winn posted this handy chart in his weekly power rankings:

All year, or at least for the past month plus after it became clear that Maryland wasn't All That Good, the talking point around the internet water cooler was about the lack of a point guard and an inability to feed the Big Blue and Gold Alex Len and his counterparts in the post.  And make no mistake, I believed that was absolutely true.  Still do, to an extent, but this chart sort of puts to rest the notion that there's a ton more post feeding to do that's been left on the table.

Now you can make the case that Maryland really should be higher because Alex Len is that much of a specimen, and it doesn't ring completely hollow, but Len is a big guy without a whole mess of post moves so it's tough to swallow.  Bottom line, Maryland does feed the post.

There's also the matter of Maryland being 8th on this list in efficiency behind conference-mate Georgia Tech in both not only efficiency but number.  Now we should remember that this is all post touches, so Slim Charles and Padgett and Shaq all figure prominently as well as the guards, but it's still an ugly number.

So yeah, back to the whole, "We have a team of ten guys who turn the ball over an inordinate amount of times" to explain everything broken about our offense.

Evaluating the rest of the 2012-13 Season

In an ugly loss today to the Wahoos, the Terps simply didn't show up and got outrebounded for the first time all season. At 17-7 (5-6), it's time to re-assess the Terps. Simply put, this team is NOT what most fans (including myself) thought it was. On paper, they seem to have the talent to compete with any team in the country. But they would get absolutely run out of the gym by the likes of Michigan, Indiana, etc (yay going to the B1G!). This post will attempt to re-evaluate the Terps and look at realistic expectations for the remaining 7 games of the season.

Let's try to see things for what they are, not what we hope them to be.

What we know:

1. The only consistency the Terps have shown this year is the ability to be inconsistent. Through 11 conference games, the Terps have yet to turn in consecutive inspiring performances. What's worse, individually, the Terps are so up and down from game to game. Layman goes off at VT, then is ice cold against UVA today. Len has stretches in every game (sometimes the entire game), when he is completely invisible. Charles shows some amazing post moves, then commits silly fouls that keep him on the bench.

What we can count on so far this season are 13-18 TO each game, a different high scorer each game, and several plays every game that leave Terps fans scratching their heads wondering how the team makes the same mistakes they made in November.

2. The Terps are NOT an NCAA Tournament team this year. It's time everyone came to realize this. Whether fans blame it on their lack of experience, Mark Turgeon, or any specific other factors, it doesn't matter. All signs point to the same conclusion: Maryland will not be dancing in March, barring a string of 4-straight wins starting Thursday, Mar 14 in Greensboro.

3. The Terps lack solid leadership. On the floor, the team's lone senior coming into this year was James Padgett. With all due respect to him, he is quiet, reserved, and not the kind of player to rally the team in a pivotal moment. Enter Dez Wells. He has without a doubt stepped up as the leader of the team.  But despite his best efforts (2nd on team in PPG, 3rd in RPG, 2nd in APG), he also leads the team in TO per game with 3.0 (no other player on the team has more than 1.9). From the bench, Turgeon's lineup changes have come under fire some this season as well. Despite the obvious questions (Where was the Terps' best offensive weapon at VT, Jake Layman, during the last 8 minutes on Thursday?How does Mitchell, the team's 2nd leading rebounder at 6.2 RPG, only get 9 minutes in the game today against UVA?), the bigger questions in my mind are about improvement. Although the Terps are a very young team, how can they still be struggling with unforced turnovers, an abysmal offense, and a lack of motivation at times? These are seemingly correctable errors which are still showing up on the court 3 months later. Additionally, in terms of motivation, how do you not get your team up to play in a virtual must-win game against UVA? The Terps came out flat, sluggish, and got outhustled on their own home floor today. Good teams (read: NCAA Tournament teams) simply do NOT get outplayed that badly at home.

4. Alex Len will not be a serious contributor to an NBA team next year. That isn't to say he won't be a lottery pick based on his amazing potential. However, watching Alex struggle to assert himself against physical, but smaller, ACC forwards is mind boggling. Is this partially on the coaching staff for not calling plays to get him open? Maybe. But oftentimes, there seems to be a lack of effort and a lack of execution on Len's part as well. In any event, there's no doubt he would greatly benefit from another season in College Park, and no doubt the Terps would greatly benefit from having Len on campus for another year.



What we don't know:

1. Can Mark Turgeon improve Maryland into more than a middle-of-the-pack team? The Terps haven't been relevant in the ACC since Mr. Vasquez was walking around as BMOC. Although some question Turgeon's recruiting, I firmly believe Seth, Jake, Shaq, and Chuck are very solid with each showing high potential to improve over their years in College Park. Landing Dez Wells, Evan Smotrycz, and Logan Aronhalt was huge for Turgeon's staff as well, and hopefully Maryland can continue to keep an eye out for solid transfer players, something we didn't see during the last few years of the Gary Williams era. Although he missed out on the Harrisons, Roddy Peters is Turgeon's highest-ranked recruit ever.

But recruiting is only half the battle. On the court, can Turgeon get the most out of his players? This year's squad certainly looked talented enough to be an ACC contender this year, but inconsistency and TO's have plagued them all season (see above). Over the past two ACC seasons, I've only seen one "good win" (this year vs (14) NCST) and only one "bad loss" (last year @GT). Other than those two games, the Terps have generally beaten the teams they should've beaten (VT, Wake, Clemson, BC, etc) and lost to the teams who should've beaten them (Duke, UNC, etc). This places them very much in the middle of the pack. Terps fans aren't (and shouldn't be) satisfied with mediocrity. I'm not, by any means, insinuating that Turgeon is satisfied with mediocrity, but the million-dollar question is whether or not he can take the steps required to push Maryland back into contender status.

2. Can Roddy Peters be the PG the Terps desperately need? Despite my fellow blogger's hatred for Marshall, he keyed the Tar Heels' success in 2011 and 2012 after Ole Roy inserted him into the starting lineup in place of Larry Drew II. The Heels had plenty of weapons (including the same fellow blogger's favorite), but had no one to get them the ball and play consistent PG. Marshall made the difference as a pass-first facilitator.

The Terps will face a very similar situation next year. With many combo guards but no clear PG on this roster, can Roddy Peters put the ball where it needs to be? And will his shoulder heal in time to get him a solid off-season of practice and preparation?


Only time will tell. As always, go Terps! See you at Comcast on Saturday.

Wake Wakes Somnabulent Terps Offense

Getting Wake Forest to come to your home arena has to be one of the great get-wells in all the land.  There are teams that are bad on the road.  Maryland has only one road win all year so far.  Then there are teams that are really bad on the road.  The kind that might only win one game the entire year at an opponent's arena.  But then, when you think you've hit bottom, is Jeff Bzdzelik and whatever team he's coaching, racking up a 2-43 road record.  Literally.  That's his road record at Colorado and Wake Forest.  How he still retains employment and handsome compensation is one of the great mysteries of not only basketball but the world.

There really isn't much to say about a game where your team has the fifth highest shooting percentage in school history, and an eFG% nearing 80%, that isn't effusive praise.  The more the year goes on, the more it seems that Maryland isn't a bad three-point shooting team so much as an inconsistent one.  This was obviously one of their better days.  Logan Aronhalt seems to have regained form over the past few games, and Jake Layman is absolutely torrid since ACC play started.  Seth Allen got his groove back as well - finally - and Dez Wells and Nick Faust show some range at times.  Only Pe'shon Howard seems like a lost cause out there, but since it's been seemingly weeks since he made any type of positive play, that isn't a surprise.

SHOT CHART

Howard: (0-1, 0-0, 0-0, 0-0)
Faust: (1-2, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1)
Wells: (3-5, 0-0, 0-1, 1-1)
Padgett: (3-3, 3-3, 0-0, 0-0)
Len: (5-6, 1-1, 0-0, 0-0)
Allen: (1-3, 0-1, 0-0, 3-4)
Aronhalt: (1-1, 1-1, 0-0, 3-4)
Layman: (0-0, 0-0, 0-0, 4-6)
Mitchell: (2-3, 0-1, 0-0, 0-0)
Cleare: (2-2, 0-0, 0-0, 0-0)

ON TO BLACKSBURG

Next up is Virginia Tech, on the road.  We all know the Terps' road woes, and the Hokies have been downright feisty the last two games, taking North Carolina and Miami to the limit.  But make no mistake, this is an absolute must win for any team with aspirations of more than an NIT invitation.  The Hokies have lost 10 out of 14, and even with the ability to deploy a rotation of more realistic depth now, they're not one of the better teams in the conference.  They would have beaten North Carolina with any reasonable type of game from Erick Green (5-17 2FG) so it's certainly not ridiculous to think that VT can upset a given team at home with the nice game they had from their supporting cast.  That being said, it's tough to expect Robert Brown, Jarell Eddie and Cadarian Raines will all crack double figures, so let's call this Terps by 9 as they pull away late.

Snaer'd

I just wonder why you would leave a man with a reputation for clutch three point shooting open to take a clutch three point shot as time winds down.  For all the good Dezmine Wells did last night, the decision to double (triple?) down on a driving Ian Miler instead of staying with Snaer was inexcusable

Maryland was doomed from the start of the play.  Nick Faust got rubbed off a (possibly moving) baseline screen by Miller.  Once Miller caught the ball three men descended upon him - none of which were the man assigned to mark him.  My math is rusty, but I'm pretty sure that guaranteed that at least one Seminole would be open.  Worse than that, Miller than got into the lane nearly unmolested by the defense.  Credit him for the heads up play for finding Snaer after Dez Wells lost his damn mind, and after that it was almost as academic as a layup.

There isn't much more to say.  The offense actually came to play, looking nearly well-oiled for the first time seemingly since Greivis Vasquez was on campus, or at very least since the Virginia Tech game earlier this month.  The Terps scored 71 points in 65 possessions, a solid performance, but in the end turnovers were the undoing.  Maryland was -10 in that battle, coughing the rock up 16 times versus only six takeaways.  You can't do that.

Many will look at Dez Wells' 8-12 night from the field (19 points) and the tough shots he made and say he kept us in the game.  True to an extent, but while I hate to harp on the night's leading scorer, his six turnovers are unacceptably high.  The Terps had 71 points in 49 possessions where they didn't turn the ball over, good for about 1.4 points per trip.  So true, Dez had 19 points, but you simply can't look at that without debiting it by eight or so points for all the unforced errors that ended possessions.  

So it's on the next one.  I said before this game that The Terps Really Need This One or Else, so, uh I guess they really, really pretty please with sugar on top need to go ahead and beat 10-10 Wake Forest at home on the courts of Comcast tomorrow afternoon.

To that end, I'm pretty confident that this will be more like Virginia Tech at home than Boston College at home.  The Deacs aren't too dissimilar to the Hokies.  While the Hokies have a competent offense and an Ivy-League level defense, the Deacons are similarly bad on both sides of the ball.  The reason I point to the similarities is that it's one or two guys and then not much else.  Sure, no one on Wake is as fantastic as Erick Green is for VT, but then Travis McKie and CJ Harris is as good a one-two punch as a bad team will have.

Harris isn't a huge volume shooter, but his percentages (51/42/83) are outstanding and he'll get to the line a ton.  McKie also has similar numbers, albeit trading a few points of accuracy for increased usage.  He's also a very strong rebounder for a 6-7 de facto PF.  After those two, with six freshman and a sophomore rounding out the rotation, there isn't much.  Devin Thomas is very good rebounder and defender, giving Wake Forest its only legitimate player with size at 6-9.  He had an outstanding 29-14 game in the upset win over NC State last week and has become a consistent double figure scorer in ACC play.

Long gone are the days of Dino Gaudio making a Good Sauce, and the Jeff Bzzz era is still at least another year from being a danger to sting anyone.  Kenpom and Vegas both call it Terps -11.  I'll say the Terps keep the offensive chops they found against the Seminoles and win it by 17 going away.

Florida State, for the season

Having already lost to Florida State once this month, Maryland experiences the joys of the unbalanced schedule by making the return trip to Tallahassee just three weeks later.  The Terps, of course, find themselves in precarious position with a still somewhat gaudy 15-5 record overall but a decidedly less ostentatious 3-4 ACC record.  Given the lack of non conference heft this year, if you believe as I do that the Terps will need 11 ACC wins to feel assured of dancing come March, the calculus becomes clear for this game.  A loss against a middle of the road Florida State team would leave the Terps heading into February needing to reel off eight out of ten to make the tournament and with only one road win in almost three months to their credit.  Even against the softer half of the schedule, that's not entirely encouraging.

The good news for Maryland - all standard disclaimers about not wishing injury on anyone - is that Terrance Shannon will be out for the game, as well as the foreseeable future.  He's not their best player - that would be Michael Snaer - nor is he the player that dominated the Terps in College Park - that would be Okaro White, but he did have eight rebounds in the first encounter and is the Noles' best rebounder.  They'll still have plenty of depth with White and a trio of (raw) seven footers', making them the only team on Maryland's schedule bigger than them, but there's no doubt that the offense will run more through the guards.

As a matter of fact, ol' Bunny Colvin's use of his depth makes Coach Turge's ten man hockey-line change gameplan look positively Thad Mattan.  In Sunday's blowout loss at Miami, Hamilton used 11 guys for double digit minutes, a few days after using 9 in double digits and two more for between five and ten minutes against Clemson.

This is far from a gimme, but this could certainly be a confidence booster for the Terps as Florida State already has five home losses, including Ls against powerhouses Mercer (of tournament tree fame) and South Alabama (of John Pelfrey fame) so the Donald L. Tucker Center hasn't really been a house of horrors.  kenpom has us favored by the slimmest of margins, and that's alright for me - Terps 67, Florida State 64.

VT Shot Chart (1/5/13)

The last time we had an offense.  Rewatching this game wasn't nearly as much of a chore as some of the others this month will be.

Pe'shon Howard: 0-5 (0-2, 0-0, 0-0, 0-3)
Nick Faust: 0-1 (0-0, 0-1, 0-0, 0-0)
Dez Wells: 3-5 (2-3, 0-0, 0-0, 1-2)
James Padgett: 0-1 (0-1, 0-0, 0-0, 0-0)
Alex Len: 6-12 (4-5, 1-4, 1-3, 0-0)
Seth Allen: 8-12 (3-3, 0-1, 2-2, 3-5)
Logan Aronhalt: 2-3 (0-0, 0-0, 0-0, 2-3)
Jake Layman: 6-12 (2-3, 0-0, 0-0, 4-9)
Chuck Mitchell: 4-6 (2-3, 2-3, 0-0, 0-0)
Shaq Cleare: 2-3 (1-1, 1-2, 0-0, 0-0)

Another Cameron Ass-Whooping

If indeed this was Maryland's last game at Cameron Indoor Stadium for a while, it was a fitting one.  The Terps lost their sixth straight there, failing to keep the score to single digits for the fifth time in that span.  For the second straight weekend, a good, but not great, wing from the research triangle lit the Terps up.  This time it was Duke frosh Rasheed Sulaimon who tallied 25 points, including 6 three pointers.  After weeks of offensive struggles where the Terps were able to fall back on their excellent defense, the bottom fell out.  Not only did the Blue Devils put together a scintillating 61.1 eFG% on the day, but the Terps forced an abysmal - even by their low standards - 4 turnovers on the day, including none in the entire second half where Duke's lead ballooned from 8 at the half to north of 20.

For the Terps part, they were right at the point per possession mark, so despite this being a Duke team that was scorched for 90 two nights ago, that qualifies as a success.  The bigs led the way with 25 points on 10-18 shooting, plus eight offensive boards (six by Charles Mitchell), but once again the guards were ice cold from inside the arc and outside the arc, garnishing their missed shots with plenty of turnovers.

I talked about the potential to win the game at the 4, but it didn't turn out like that at all.  Amile Jefferson, once a key Maryland target for the class of 2012, had perhaps his best game of the season with 11 points (9 FTA), 9 boards and 3 blocked shots.

Duke continued to go with a short bench, as expected, playing a seven man rotation except for three minutes by de facto fourth big men Marshall Plumlee and Alex Murphy, two men not nearly as good as their older brothers.  Quinn Cook played all 40 minutes, dishing 9 assists and providing a stark contrast to Maryland's lack of quality point guard play, and Mason Plumlee saw the bench for only three minutes despite vague foul trouble.

Speaking of point guard play, it's getting worse, not better for Maryland.  Nick Faust is not the answer.  His performance last year should have been enough to prove that, but tonight's game was particularly bad.  Faust had a 3-12 night from the field, making two threes but taking several other ill-advised attempts, and turned the ball over four times.  Not that he was alone.  Pe'Shon Howard played 21 minutes with almost nothing positive to show for it, but plenty of lazy passes and WTF moments to make up for it. 

More disappointingly, Seth Allen sat the first half for "disciplinary reasons".  That's now three of the four freshman who have sat extended periods within a game for off the court issues, first with Jake Layman sitting a half for academics and then Charles Mitchell checking in after Spencer Barks at Miami due to "immaturity".  Not a promising sign.

Mitchell was great today, the second straight week he's been a lone beacon in a crappy road loss, going for 13 and 7 in only 12 minutes.  It begs the question of why he'd only play 12 minutes, particularly with Shaq Cleare in foul trouble early, but it seems clear at this point that for whatever reasons, Turgeon doesn't trust Mitchell as a consistent 20+ minute per night player.  No doubt he's one of many on the team that needs to value the ball better, but he's without question the team's strongest rebounder, even over Alex Len, and he shows promising, if not completely refined, offensive skills for a freshman.

And oh yeah, Alex Len did this:

Good times.

Shot breakdown below.  As always, layups/dunks, short shots/jumpers, mid-range jumpers, threes:


Logan Aronhalt: 2-4 (0-1, 0-0, 1-1, 1-2)
Seth Allen: 1-2 (1-1, 0-0, 0-0, 0-1)
Shaq Cleare: 1-2 (0-0, 1-2, 0-0, 0-0)
Nick Faust: 3-12 (1-4, 0-2, 0-1, 2-5)
Pe'Shon Howard: 2-5 (2-2, 0-2, 0-0, 0-1)
Jake Layman: 2-6 (0-0, 1-1, 0-0, 1-5)
Alex Len: 3-6 (3-4, 0-1, 0-1, 0-0)
Charles Mitchell: 5-8 (5-7, 0-1. 0-0, 0-0)
James Padgett: 1-2 (1-2, 0-0, 0-0, 0-0)
Dez Wells: 5-13 (4-7, 0-1, 0-1, 1-4)

Showdown at Cameron

Saturday at 1 PM might be the end of an era, the same way that last Saturday at noon might have been the end of an era.  Maryland travels to Duke for what could be their final game at Cameron Indoor Stadium before their move to the Big Ten in 2014-15.  The schedule for next season has yet to be released with the expanded 14 team ACC so it remains to be seen whether the teams will play a home and home series or only a single game at Cameron or the Comcast Center.  Whenever it happens, it'll be the first time since 1953-54 that the Terps won't travel down to Durham to take on the Blue Devils.

Duke is still currently #1, but as you surely know by now, they were absolutely destroyed on the road against Miami, taking the third worst loss ever for a top ranked team and the program's worst in almost thirty years.  With last weekend's loss to NC State, Duke sits at now 3-2, two full games behind conference leading Miami.  No doubt the storylines write themselves - the Blue Devils can't win without Kelly, the team shot only 4-23 from outside the arc against Miami - and while those ring true, the simple reality is that Duke lost its two conference games because it played horrendous defense, allowing 84 points in 72 possessions against NC State and 90 in 79 possessions last night against the Canes.  Both teams got to the line at will, and destroyed Duke from inside the arc.  The Wolfpack was 26-51 and Miami was 24-39.

Ryan Kelly won't win Defensive Player of the Year awards, but he's a very good shotblocker who presents a serious matchup problem defensively at 6-11 guarding power forwards typically several inches smaller.  Now Mason Plumlee's interior counterparts are Amile Jefferson (6-8) and Josh Hairston (6-7).  It makes sense then that Kenny Kadji and CJ Leslie shot a combined 16-24 from inside the arc in the two losses.  This isn't the whole story, but it's going to be a large part of it going forward until Ryan Kelly rises from the ashes.

I should also point out what Luke Winn mentioned in his power rankings (from before the Miami game).  Essentially Duke went from having Kelly, a guy who draws more fouls than he commits, to two guys who do the exact opposite, particularly in the case of Josh Hairston, who adds a huge amount of fouls to his lack of shot blocking.  Again, Kelly might not be Ron Artest, but blocking shots, being super tall for your position, and avoiding fouls is a pretty good statistical base defensively.

Now...well I guess Maryland factors in here somewhere.  The issue for the Terps is that they don't have a CJ Leslie or Kenny Kadji.  None of the three non-Alex Len big men have the kind of length and athleticism that those two have, and while Shaq Cleare and Chuck Mitchell could certainly use their girth to create issues for the much smaller Duke 4s, neither are polished enough 20 games into their career to feel comfortable that they can take advantage.  Turge's best bet may be a small lineup with Jake Layman at the four.  Given his recent productivity with two 15+ point games in ACC play already, he could have a big night.  Or he could fail to register an impact at all as he did in the other four games.

The other issue is that Layman at the four almost certainly necessitates starting Pe'shon Howard or perhaps Seth Allen at the one, which will lead mainly to more plodding half court sets that go nowhere.  Hopefully I'll get a chance to finish rewatching the Boston College game, but it seemed clear that the only time Maryland wasn't dysfunctional offensively was during the last ten minutes when they got out and ran with the ball in Dez Wells' hands.  Wells can't "run the point" in the traditional sense, but he can attack the basket, finish, and has great court vision to set up the open man on the perimeter.

In any event, this game won't determine the Terps season.  A win would be enormous, but the team hasn't been consistent enough that we can trust them to validate it with wins in the games they should win.  Meanwhile, in the likely event of a loss, next week's game against Florida State on the road looms very large for a team that could find itself in need of 8 of their last 10 just to make the tournament should they swing and miss on the road trip.