Sports Tsars: Fixing Conference (Re)Alignment

"You either die a hero or you live long enough to see yourself become the villain." -Harvey Dent, The Dark Knight (2008)

And so we have reached the point where the NCAA, college presidents, athletic directors, and the college athletic machine as a whole have fulfilled this prophecy. Sure, they may have started swaying towards the dark side some time ago. But it can't be denied that we are coming to a terminal point with amateurism and interscholastic athletics that could signal the end of college sports as we have come to know them.

Amateurism was once championed as a white knight of sorts, untainted by the dangers of money and burden of professional expectations. The athletes were seen as pure competitors, playing for nothing more than school pride and for the love of the game. A select few would leave early to ply their trade in the pro ranks (with the truly exceptional skipping college altogether) though most would stay to finish their degree and be shining examples of the student-athlete ideal.

That idea, if it ever truly existed (it certainly hasn't in the case of baseball, where athletes have been forgoing college for as long as there has been a professional league) has long since passed away. What we are left with instead, is a two-face hypocritical system where schools, administrators, and businessmen profit massively on one end and spew all sorts of nonsense about the wonderful amateur nature of student athletes out the other. While we think in many cases these students lose track of how good they have it with full scholarships (that's not to say we don't support some form of additional payment to the revenue athletes), the fact is that they have a raw deal. Coaches can transfer at will to new schools, leaving their players in the dust in the process. Students have to sit out a year. Administrators enact an insane number of silly, nearly impossible rules in order to defend the sanctity of amateurism. Students can lose eligibility if the don't follow these petty rules to the T. It's easy to see how the system has become so villainous to athletes.

At the heart of the matter, and current linchpin of fans' wrath (for the athletes it's the lack of pay), is the constant reshuffling of schools and their athletic conferences. While conference realignment has existed since the turn of the century - the 19th century! - it has only recently become such a hot button issue. This outrage is due to the increasing nature of money being the driving force behind these decisions (in addition to every single other choice the NCAA and its schools have made this century). In the past schools changed conferences for a better geographical fit, for a more equal level of competition, or to move one sport at a time to a separate conference when the current one did not carry that sport (i.e. Hopkins moving its lacrosse program to the B1G). Now days, we have schools in New Jersey/Maryland joining a mid-west conference and schools in Indiana/Kentucky joining a conference comprised of universities whose states touch the Atlantic ocean, all in the name of Benjamin.

Things really came to a head in the summer of 2010 through 2011, when the idea of a superconference first started looking like more of a probability than a possibility. First came news that the Pac-10 was looking to add six teams from the Big XII, effectively killing that conference in the name of creating college athletics first modern superconference. There were rumors that the Big Ten was looking to do the same before settling on adding just Nebraska for twelve teams. Then the dominoes started to fall rapidly. Colorado and Utah to the new Pac-12. Texas A&M and Missouri to the SEC. Syracuse and Pittsburgh to the ACC. This game of musical chairs, an arms race in search of television money and athletic superiority, even led to rumors of the top teams would secede from the NCAA for football and form their own league. This all eventually stopped, especially with the recent Grant of Rights passing in the ACC. 

We bring all of this up because Steve and I, as well as the rest of the country, are tired of this never ending shuffle that is ruining the things we love about college athletics (the traditions, the rivalries, the road trips) that are getting lost in the quest for more. And, more importantly, we have some fun ways to fix this problem (as well as way too much time on our hands). These solutions are not thoroughly researched and are meant to be nothing more than a fun exercise where we have spent entirely too much energy coming up with hypotheticals that we personally (and perhaps some others) would rather see than the garbage that is reality (where Maryland may be forced to be rivals with - shudder - Rutgers).

Steve and I have come up with a couple conference scenarios that we believe to be an improvement on the current conferences. This first one takes on the idea that we are destined to see a large subset of schools break away from the NCAA by virtue of forming their own superconferences for football. By using what we know about history and conference preferences, we believe we have a logical alignment of the teams that may be most likely to break away. 

Based on this scenario, we have determined four conferences of sixteen teams (there we sixty four teams in the "power 5" at the time of this article) to be that best approach. Each conference would be further broken down into divisions of eight teams for the purposes of football. Each team would then play each of the other seven teams in their division every year (alternating home/away year to year) along with two teams from the other division (rotating every year to allow a school to play every school from the other division in a four year cycle). A nine game conference schedule is already being implemented in the B1G for the 2015 season, so this matches up with what some of the conferences are planning. The winners of each division would meet in a conference championship game in order to determine the winner of each superconference. Given the new four team playoff system, it would seem plausible to assume that each conference winner would then be chosen to participate in the playoff to decide the national champion. More likely than not, this would quickly expand to an eight team playoff to allow for at-large bids from contenders that did not win their conference (mostly the SEC). As for what happens to the other bowl games, that's a rabbit hole best left for another time and post.

While this is a mostly football guided scenario, it stands to reason that these superconferences would stay together for basketball as well (where they would still be a part of the NCAA). In order to create a balanced schedule while also trying to promote basketball rivalries via the home/home, we have further split the conferences into four team pods based upon geography. Each team would play a home/home with their pod members in addition to playing the other twelve teams once each year (alternating home/away) for a total of eighteen games. A fifteen game conference schedule would be the most balanced, and therefore most fair, but hurts the traditional feel of being able to play your rivals at home every year. Our alignment allows for for this without sacrificing the balance.

We have provided rationales for the conferences, explaining why teams were placed in each conference, why others were passed over, and how the conferences stack up. If a team is already in one of the four precursor conferences, they will remain in said conference (Maryland will stay in the B1G, Missouri in the SEC, etc.). While this is a hypothetical exercise, it is based in reality and not a fantasy draft of sorts. We are trying to prevent any future warts to the coneferences, not fix the ones that already exist. We will tackle those in our next exercise.

So, without further ado... Superconferences!

Pac-16
West
Cascade Pod
Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State
California Pod
Stanford, California, Southern California, California - Los Angeles
East
Rocky Mountain Pod
Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado
High Plains Pod
Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

Rationale:
The western division of this conference was by far the easiest to construct out of the eight made in total. It is simply the eight existing Pac members who are found in the three most western states of the conference (who were all also members of the precursor Pac-8). No other division listed has the history, tradition, and perfect geography than these eight teams. Not much else needs to be said in order to defend these selections and placements.
The eastern division, on the other hand, does require some explanation when considering the four newest teams that we have added to the conference. When the Big XII originally appeared destined for dissolution, there were six teams considered by the Pac-10 for expansion. Two of those have since found their way to new conferences (Texas A&M to the SEC and Colorado to the current Pac-12). The other four universities targeted were Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas Tech. As you can see, three of these teams made their way to our new Pac-16 superconference. However, we have replaced Texas Tech with Baylor as the fourth team in the High Plains Pod. There are a couple reasons for this. First and foremost, we believe Baylor to currently be - and in the future to be - a superior athletic program to Texas Tech. In recent years Baylor has made two Elite Eights (2010, 2012) in men's basketball, won two National Titles (2005, 2012) in women's basketball, and winning the Big XII this past year in football. They are opening a brand new $250 million stadium that will be one of the premier home stadiums in college football. Texas Tech has had some success in football this century as well, but simply can't compete with Baylors success on the hardwood.
In addition to the on field production of Baylor, Waco is a much better fit with the other three cities in this pod. Waco, along with Austin, Norman, and Stillwater are all found along the north-south traversing Interstate-35. In fact, Waco is located in between Norman and Austin on I-35, meaning limited travel time is added to the pod as a whole. Lubbock, meanwhile, is five and half hours west of both Norman and Austin, with no direct route by bus. It makes sense to keep the pod along I-35 to limit travel expenses and encourage rivalries and fan travel.
Finally, Baylor University is a more nationally renown school than Texas Tech University. Baylor has a higher US News ranking (75 vs. 161) and Forbes (235 vs. 447) in both publications 2013 rankings. A university's academic profile can be an important piece of information when determining a school's best fit. The Pac-12 is made up of both public and private universities, most of which are internationally renown research universities (Cal, UCLA, and Washington are all top 20 worldwide according to the ARWU). Should Texas Tech come in and join the conference, they would rank toward the lowest end of the academic spectrum in the conference (depending on the ranking publication used). Thus, it really doesn't match the Pac's overall academic profile quite as well as Baylor. One could argue that Oklahoma State's academic reputation is not much better than Texas Tech's, but the Cowboy's superior athletic endeavors and location to the I-35 corridor make it an easy choice to be included.
As a whole, the new Pac-16 was one of the easier superconferences to construct. With twelve teams already a part of the conference, the Pac need the most teams added of the four superconferences. But with the failed 2010 expansion as our guide and and intelligent substitution to the conference newcomers, we were able to construct a formidable conference worthy of being considered "super".

Conference Analysis: 
NCAA Football Titles (AP or Coaches) - 21 (by 6 teams)
NCAA Basketball Titles - 18 (7 teams)
Conference Championship Game - Levi's Stadium
Conference Tournament Site - Staples Center

B1G
West
Corn Belt Pod
Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Iowa State
Great Lakes Pod
Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern
East
Central Lowlands Pod
Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue
Appalachia Pod
Ohio State, Penn State, Maryland, Rutgers

Rationale:
While the Pac-12 had more teams added to it in order to reach sixteen, trying to figure out which two to add to the B1G was a slightly more involved process. Where history could be used to more easily place teams in the Pac, history actually works against the B1G as the teams who would be the most perfect fits are already attached to other conferences. Missouri moved to the SEC when the Big XII began showing signs of weakness and Pittsburgh (which doesn't add the TV market the B1G wants, but fits the geographic and academic footprint of the conference) was gobbled up by the ACC. And, of course, there's the big fish: Notre Dame. Plain and simple, Notre Dame belongs in the B1G. The location in northern Indiana, the football rivalries, the huge football stadium, the hockey team, the lofty academic rankings (17th US News), the massive endowment, and the alumni. It all screams B1G. But after many years of pressure and expanding conference realignment Notre Dame finally showed their hand when it came to choosing a conference and picked the ACC over the B1G. Sure, they aren't full members in football and therefore, for the purposes of this exercise could be moved to the B1G in full. But they had their chance, still wanted control, and went looking elsewhere.
So we are left with two spots to fill and several choices. Kansas, Kansas State, Cincinnati, Iowa State, UConn, and WVU are the schools that are available for the B1G (and the ACC and SEC as well). UConn is the first to be put aside, due mostly to location. Ironically, its included here due to its location and the hope that its proximity to New York could solidify the market enough to move the B1G network to a more basic cable package. I suspect this would be more likely with Syracuse and Rutgers or Syracuse and UConn. As such, UConn is too much of a geographical outlier for the B1G. WVU is next and it is simply a case of academics. They are not highly ranked (170 in US News, 360 Forbes) and lack the pedigree of a Nebraska to make the low end (for the B1G) academics tolerable. Kansas State gets axed for much the same reason. Cincinnati is an interesting school to consider for the B1G. The school's academics fall towards the bottom of the B1G, but not so much so to be dismissed entirely (they have a top 108 ARWU ranking, same as the next school we'll discuss). And they have a solid athletic history to consider along with their location and B1G endowment (over $1 billion). Unfortunately, they fail to "wow" enough to overtake the two schools that we selected for the B1G. Cincinnati is a good fit in many ways, but doesn't excel where it counts the most.
And then there were two, Kansas and Iowa State. Kansas fails to distinguish itself in the field of academia and on the gridiron, but can the B1G really pass over one of the Blue Bloods of Basketball. Kansas would give the conference another traditional power to pair with Indiana and Michigan State and it's a geographical fit that would help solidify the Kansas City market for the B1G network. 
We were actually quite surprised to have Iowa State as the last B1G program to be added. Their sports programs are very up and down, having made little national impact since their last hey days at the turn of the century in basketball. What really surprised us was Iowa State's membership in the Association of American Universities (AAU). This association includes just about every public and private research university worth a damn (Nebraska's current lack of membership would have most likely kept it out of the B1G). With the CIC a foundation on which the conference has been built, Iowa State's ticket was punched the moment it was the last AAU university available in the region. Further reasons that Mizzou and Pittsburgh would have been excellent candidates.
At last, a brief note on the structure of the B1G divisions (no more Legends and Leaders!) and pods. As is fairly obvious with a quick check of the map, the divisions are divided by strict east and west geography, despite any perceived balance of power tipping towards the east. All of the major football rivalries are held intact (Ohio St vs. Michigan, Minnesota vs. Wisconsin, etc.) and a new intrastate rivalry is formed. In fact, the only downside we can see through our Calvert and Crossland tinted lenses is that Maryland will undoubtedly have Rutgers forced upon it as a rival. Little about conference realignment sounds worse than having Rutgers (of one single national title in fencing fame) as your supposed athletic rivals. Sigh.

Conference Analysis:
NCAA Football Titles - 21 (7 teams)
NCAA Basketball Titles - 14 (7 teams)
Conference Championship - Lucas Oil Stadium
Conference Tournament - United Center

ACC
North
Colonial Pod
Syracuse, Notre Dame, Boston College, Connecticut
Blue Ridge Pod
Pittsburgh, Louisville, Virginia, Virginia Tech
South
Tobacco Road Pod
North Carolina, North Carolina State, Duke, Wake Forest
Coastal Plains Pod
Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Miami

Rationale:
Some of the same schools that would be competing for a B1G spot would also be fighting to get into the ACC's single open spot (since Notre Dame won't do the intelligent thing and join the B1G already, preferably at Rutgers expense). UConn, Cincinnati and WVU are the three schools that make the most geographical sense and would probably be the only three considered at this stage. The same issues that plagued Cincinnati and WVU for B1G inclusion come up here as the ACC selects the team of their choice. While academics are considered on a slightly less strict level in the ACC, the conference is still home to some of the country's brightest universities that would probably make WVU too hard to swallow with no FSU football or Louisville basketball to chase it with after. Cincinnati meanwhile, didn't get any more exceptional since we last discussed them and will once again get passed over for a program with a little more glamour.
That team is UConn, whose basketball prestige pushes them into a coveted superconference spot. To be clear, that is the only athletic reason UConn would be selected. UConn's football program just completed an almost winless season in a football stadium that is forty-five minutes from campus (basketball is also played part-time thirty minutes away in Hartford) and would instantly become the worst team in the conference with only Duke as competition (and Duke was at least competitive in their most recent major bowl game). The university itself is unremarkable academically, though much better than expected (57th in US News, 140th Forbes) and certainly not harming its case.
The ACC will be home to the two most awkward pods in the country, the Colonial and Blue Ridge pods. While the North division makes sense in a cut and dry geographical separation for the ACC South, the inclusion of Notre Dame (ugh) makes for the biggest geographical outlier in any of the superconferences. It doesn't look so poor in the context of seven other teams stretching from Kentucky, to Virginia, to Massachusetts. But in the context of a pod with only three other teams, Notre Dame's distance does make for some oddities. We originally had Pittsburgh and Notre Dame switched, before determining that it might be easier for Pittsburgh to form new rivalries with UVA and VT than it would be for Notre Dame. Especially with Notre Dame having some lingering Big East relationships with the other three teams in its basketball pod. This alignment just made a little more sense in the end.

Conference Analysis:
NCAA Football Titles - 21 (7 teams)
NCAA Basketball Titles - 19 (6 teams)
Conference Championship - Bank of America Field
Conference Tournament - Verizon Center

SEC
South-East
Gulf Coast Pod
Alabama, Louisiana State, Ole Miss, Mississippi State
Wetlands Pod
Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Auburn
North-West
Tennessee Valley Pod
Kentucky, West Virginia, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Tex-Arkana Pod
Missouri, Arkansas, Texas Christian, Texas A&M

Rationale:
Here we are, the last conference to discuss. The best part of reaching this portion of the exercise? We can finally throw academics out the window. Nothing but reading, riting, and rithmatic for these programs (poor Vanderbilt). And you know what that means. We finally have a home for WVU! West Virginia's football and basketball programs are too good to get completely passed over by all three eastern superpowers. And, all jokes aside, WVU is actually a very good fit in the SEC. Home to a small town that bleeds blue and gold on Saturdays in the fall with a sizable and well known fan base. They also bring along a decent basketball program that would instantly place among the top five in the SEC. The SEC doesn't need more superpowered football programs, just ones with a solid history that can be slotted in to add depth and occasionally compete for a major bowl.
Leading us to the final team of sixty-four selected for this conference building exercise, TCU. Why TCU instead of Kansas State and Cincinnati? Because TCU has been a more consistent and successful football team of the three since the turn of the century, with a long, storied history to go with it. Kansas State's success extends a little further back into the early 90's, but was historically woeful prior to Bill Snyder's hiring and re-hiring lending to the belief that TCU's recent success is more sustainable than Kansas State's. In addition, Ft. Worth feels much more like a proper southern town than Manhattan and Cincinnati. One could argue that this should work against WVU as well, and it does to a point. But WVU's athletic department is much larger than the other two and it fits more easily into a pod with Vanderbilt, Kentucky, and Tennessee than Kansas State does with Texas A&M, Arkansas and Missouri.
Bringing us to the crazy divisions you see before you. There is a method to the madness here. Namely, preserving as many rivalries as we can (but really just the Iron Bowl). And as odd as that North-West division looks at first, each school resides in a state that touches another in the division from Texas all the way up and around to West Virginia. It would be impossible to preserve all of the historic rivalries in the conference, but we believe that most of the teams would be happy enough with this arrangement with Tennessee the most likely to be upset.

Conference Analysis:
NCAA Football Titles - 23 (8 teams)
NCAA Basketball Titles - 11 (3 teams)
Conference Championship - Georgia Dome
Conference Tournament - Smoothie King Center